Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
325 PM CDT SUN APR 21 1996

TOR WATCH #214 JUST ISSUED. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE SVR PTNL THIS EVE.
AS SUGD BY YDAS AVN RUN APCHG CDFNT AWAITG SHRTWV EJECTING FM SRN RCKYS
SO COMG IN SLOER. LTST WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHRTWV ENTERING WRN NM WITH PSBL
JET STREAK MOVG ACRS THE TX/OK PNHDLS.

MAY BE SEEING WRMFNT REFORM ACRS SE KS AND SRN MO AS DWPTS HV JUMPED
INTO THE LOW/MID 50S THERE. DEEPER MSTR FTHR S ACRS SRN HLVS OF OK/AR
WHERE MAIN WRMFNT LOCATED AND ADAP SHOWS -10 LIS OVR SRN OK. STG CNVTN
HAS DLVPD RPDLY ACRS NC/NE OK IN RGN OF GTST DSTBLZN. GTST PRES FALL
CHG PER ADAP SEEN OVR E CNTRL KS/W CNTRL MO SUGG WRMFNT WILL CONT NWD
AND ALLOW DEEPER MSTR/INSTBY TO MOV INTO SRN HLF CWA THIS EVE. WILL
FOLLOW SCENERIO OF CNVTN SPREADING NEWD AS JET STREAK LIFTS NEWD.
ACTVTY OVR FA MAY WAIT TILL CDFNT ARRIVAL ARND SUNSET. EXPCG FROPA ARND
05Z AT MCI. GRIDDED DATA FCST LRG UVV MAX ACRS W CNTRL MO BY 06Z MOVG
NEWD ACRS REST OF FA AS CDFNT CONTS E. HIEST POPS OVR SRN AND ERN CNTYS
WHERE LLVL MSTR TO BE GRTST. SVR THREAT APRS TO BE CONFINED TO MAINLY S
OF MO RVR WHERE WRMFNT/CDFNT ARE EXPCD TO INTERSECT.

COOLER/DRIER AIR ON TAP FOR MON. SHUD STAY DRY DESPITE WK SHRTWV MOVG
INTO NW MO BY 00Z TUE. AMS TOO STBL/DRY TO SUPPORT MENTION OF LOW POPS.
DCRSG CLDS W TO E IN THE AFTN. AFTN SUNSHINE SHUD HELP TEMPS RECOVER
SOME. GUID TEMPS MAY BE A TAD WRM MON OTRW FOLLOWED.

MCI 045/059 51

JULY

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-221200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT SUN APR 21 1996

...A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...FIRE DANGER CONTINUES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY..

FORECAST...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF AN OLATHE KANSAS TO RICHMOND
TO MACON LINE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO DAMAGING
WINDS.

CIVIL DEFENSE COORDINATORS....HAM RADIO AND SPOTTER NETWORK OPERATORS
SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER UPDATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANY
CHANGES IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE ACTIVATION DUE TO
WEATHER.

ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...PERSONS SHOULD REFRAIN FROM ALL
FORMS OF OUTDOOR BURNING AND DISPOSE OF ALL SMOKING MATERIALS
PROPERLY.  OFF ROAD DRIVING IS ALSO DISCOURAGED. A BAN ON OPEN
BURNING PERMITS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDOWN TODAY.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH FROM OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NEBRASKA WILL ARRIVE OVER EASTERN KANSAS
EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY MOIST AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND ACT TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEAST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FORM A SQUALL LINE AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. THE BEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 6 PM AND 2 AM. THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF MONDAY
MORNING AND THUS END THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

JULY