Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
210 AM CDT MON SEP 23 1996

WATCH 1053 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7AM. LTST ANALYSIS SHOWS 8H JET
INTERSECTING SFC WMFNT NR STJ WITH STG MSTR ADVCTN ALONG THETAE
RIDGE OVR AREA. CRNT CNVCTN SEEMS TO BE FIRING ALONG IMPINGMENT OF
SFC TROF WITH 8H BOUNDARY. 00Z GRIDS SHOW STG UPRLVL DVRG AIDING
DVLPMNT...AND COOLER MIDLVL AIR WL ALSO AID DESTABILIZATION.

MODELS SIMILAR IN CONCEPT BUT A LITTLE OFF IN TIMING. PREFER NGMS
SLOER SOLN...BRINGING SFC FNT THROUGH THE FA LT MON AFTN. MAIN
EFFECT OF THIS WL BE TO REMOVE TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA WRN ZONES.
AIRMASS SHOULD HAVE AMPLE TIME TO DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN AFTER
CNVCTN MOVES THRU THIS AM...AND WITH 7H WV AND SFC BOUNDARY STILL
TO OUR WEST DYNAMICS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER RD LT THIS AFTN.

REST OF GOING FCST LUKS XCLNT. FWC TEMPS THRU PD SEEM TOO WARM...SO
WL TREND CLOSER TO COOLER FAN.

MCI TB 72/49 68/49 63 0562-

JHV

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043
>046-053-054-241200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT MON SEP 23 1996

...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...

FORECAST...TWO WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ONE IS
OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE SECOND IS FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON IN PREPARATION FOR
THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING HAIL...ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINS MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE DAMAGE.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG AND
NEAR A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE KANSAS CITY METRO
AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA ON STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY...PROVIDING A PRIME FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

JHV

KSZ102-MOZ001>006-011>015-020>023-031-231330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
730 AM CDT MON SEP 23 1996

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 1053 HAS EXPIRED FOR NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7AM THIS
MONDAY MORNING HAS EXPIRED.

THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THERE STILL EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.
HOWEVER...THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THROUGH MID-
MORNING.

SMITH

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR MACON...
CHARITON...RANDOLPH...SALINE...HOWARD...JOHNSON...PETTIS...AND
COOPER COUNTIES.

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA...DIMINISHING THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  WHILE SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM
IN SOME SPOTS...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.  THEREFORE THE WATCH
HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THESE AREAS.

THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR
ANY COUNTIES SERVED BY THE PLEASANT HILL NATIONAL WEATHER S,ERVICE
OFFICE.

WELVAERT

KSZ102-MOZ001>006-011>015-020>023-031-231330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
730 AM CDT MON SEP 23 1996

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 1053 HAS EXPIRED FOR
NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7AM THIS
MONDAY MORNING HAS EXPIRED.

THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THERE STILL EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH.
HOWEVER...THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THROUGH MID-
MORNING.

SMITH

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