Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
337 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 1996

SAGG SFC BNDRY ALG WITH MID/UPR LOW RIDING THRU MEAN RDG ACRS CNTRL
PLAINS TO FINALLY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FM HEAT ALG WITH CHC OF PCP
ACRS CWA.  CNVTVN FIRG AND TRAING THIS AFTN VCNTY OF FNT FM SRN NEB
TO SRN IA INTO NE MO.  TRW IN CWA THIS AFTN LIMITED TO IRK AREA VCNTY
OF BNDRY ALG WITH COOLR MID LEVEL TEMPS WHILE REST OF CWA RMNS CAPPED.

MODELS SAG BNDRY SWD THRU ALL BUT XTRM SW PART OF CWA OVRNGHT...THEN
QSTNRY BFR LIFTG NE AS WRMFNT ON SUN.  UPR SYS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOLY
EWD INTO ERN KS ON SAT...THEN THRU MO SAT NGT INTO SUN.  MAIN CONCERN
WL BE HVY RAIN WITH WK WND FIELDS IN TROPICAL AMS TNGT INTO SAT.

PER DISCUSSIONS WITH ADJACENT WSFOS...WL HOLD OFF ON FFA IN NW MO TNGT
AS FFG IN THE 4-4.5 RNG BUT MENTION HVY RN LKLY.  WL KEEP POPS IN HI
SCT TO LKLY CATEGORY OVR ENTIRE CWA THRU SAT...THEN GRADUALLY DCR INTO
SUN.  FWC POPS OK...TEMPS A LTL LOW.

MCI TB 74/88 72/90 73 4753

DJV

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
100 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 1996

...EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY...
...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BY TONIGHT OVER MOST AREAS...

FORECAST...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS AND AROUND 90 ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF MISSOURI. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO BE
HIGH...CREATING HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 115 DEGREES. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TODAY GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST.
JOSEPH TO COLUMBIA MISSOURI. THIS INCLUDES THE ENTIRE KANSAS CITY AND
ST. JOSEPH METROPOLITAN AREAS. NORTH OF THIS LINE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. PEOPLE WORKING OR
PLAYING OUTDOORS TODAY SHOULD TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND BE SURE TO DRINK
PLENTY OF FLUIDS THAT REPLENISH YOUR SYSTEM.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY NORTH OF A MARYVILLE TO CHILLICOTHE TO MOBERLY
LINE...AND THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN. TONIGHT MOST OF THE AREA HAS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
AMOUNTS OF RAIN BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO A LINE FROM NEAR VICHY
MISSOURI TO TOPEKA KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO POOL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE HIGH HEAT INDICE
READINGS. THIS POOLING EFFECT WILL ALSO CREATE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE BOUNDARY AND TREK TO THE EAST...AFFECTING NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI. WITH SUCH A
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND WITH MID LEVEL WINDS BEING
RELATIVELY WEAK...THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN MISSOURI HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO "PULSE" BRIEFLY TO
NEAR SEVERE LIMITS DU,E TO STRONG WINDS. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

POLSTON