Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
150 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 1996

FCST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE TSTM CHCS. TRW FIRING ALG IA BDR IN
VCNTY OF WRMFNT. SOUTH OF FNT...AIR MASS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH LIS AROUND
-10 AND CAPE AROUND 4000 J/KG. MAY SEE OTHER WDLY SCT TRW FIRE ACR AREA
WITH LTL OR NO CAP AND HI INSTBLTY. MOST TRW THIS EVE IS XPCTD TO BE
ACR NRN ZONES IN STGR MID LVL WIND AND VCNTY OF BOUNDARIES.

LAST COUPLE OF DAYS MDLS HAVE BEEN LESS VIGOUROUS WITH FNT ENTERING
AREA TNGT AND MON. MDLS VARY HOW DEEP FNT TO MAKE IT INTO MO...BUT WITH
UPR RDG BUILDING BACK INTO PLAINS...DONT XPCT FNT TO MAKE IT NO FURTHER
THAN MO RVR. TRW ALSO XPCTD ALG FNT IN SERN NEB THIS EVE. HAVE DOUBTS
WHETHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX WL DEVELOP TNGT...AS GRIDDS SHOW LLJ WEAK
WITH MID LVL FLO ALSO WEAKENING. HOWEVER...XPCT SCT RW/TRW TO SAG SE
OVERNGT...PSBLY REACHING IRK TO MCI LN BY 12Z MON.

TRW AGAIN PSBL MON AFTN IN VICINTY OF FNT WITH LTL OR NO CAP. FNT TO
RETREAT INTO IA ON MON AS UPR RDG BUILDS NWD INTO PLAINS. WL NOT
MENTION POPS ON MON AS TRW XPCT TO BE ISOLD/WDLY SCT.

LTL COOLING XPCTD WITH FROPA WITH GUID TEMPS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES.

M
CI 72/89 71/91 3432

DB

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-241200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 1996

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

FORECAST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS TONIGHT...GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OF A ST JOSEPH TO BETHANY LINE. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHERN IOWA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES HAS
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO SURFACE FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK COLD
FRONT IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI TONIGHT.

VE\RY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AROUND 100.

BEUSTERIEN