Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
325 AM CDT THU MAY 23 1996

ONLY A QUICK LOOK THIS MORNING AT SFC/UA ANALYSIS AND ETA/RAFS
MODELS. EXPECT TRW TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN SEVERITY FOR REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING...BUT HVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
THROUGH 8AM. CURRENT FFA LOOKS OK...BUT FFW'S MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION JUST S OF CURRENT FFA OVR NRN MO.

CURRENT MCS/MCC SHOULD DECAY SHARPLY AFTER 8AM. GOOD UVV STILL IN
VCNTY OF WARM FRONTAL BNDRY THROUGH 18Z...EXPECT SOME RE-FIRING OF
TRW IN NERN QUARTER OF MO THIS AFTN PER ETA. BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT
SLGTLY NWD DURING 18-30 HR TIME FRAME...SO BEST CHANCES FOR TRW THU
NITE INTO FRI...SHOULD BE ALONG NRN 1/3 OF MO...WITH SMALLER CHANCE
TO THE S.

IF CURRENT DOWNWARD TREND CONT...WL LIKELY SHORTEN CURRENT WATCHES
WITH NEW ZONE PKG ISSUANCE. WL COORD WITH SPC AND STL ON MATTER AS
ZONE TIME APPROACHES.

M0CI  85/67 53

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MISSOURI
1008 AM CDT THU MAY 23 1996

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1035 PM    2 E PICKERING             MO   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/22/96   NODAWAY

1110 PM    ISADORA                   MO   WIND DAMAGE
05/22/96   WORTH                          SEVERAL 4-INCH DIAMETER
                                          LIMBS DOWN

1115 PM    3 NW GRANT CITY           MO   .75 INCH HAIL
05/22/96   WORTH

1130 PM    CORNING                   MO   .88 INCH HAIL
05/22/96   HOLT

1130 PM    FAIRFAX                   MO   .75 INCH HAIL
05/22/96   ATCHISON

1205 AM    4 NW MOUND CITY           MO   .75 INCH HAIL
05/23/96   HOLT

WELVAERT

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-241200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT THU MAY 23 1996

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...

...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LIKELY TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI LATER TONIGHT...

FORECAST...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO MACON MISSOURI. THE
REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE DUE TO DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI DURING THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING.

HEAVY...POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD PRODUCING...RAINFALL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A ST. JOSEPH TO MACON LINE OVERNIGHT.

CIVIL DEFENSE COORDINATORS...HAM RADIO AND STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS
SHOULD MONITOR LATER WEATHER UPDATES FOR MORE DETAILED TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVATION OF NETWORKS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...A WEST TO EAST WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR STRONG MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE CHANGES...ADDING TO THE
INSTABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY BY EARLY EVENING BUT VERY
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TILL
LATER TONIGHT. A LARGE COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER S CENTRAL OR CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND 4THEN ROLL
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...MOST LIKELY ENTERING NORTHERN MISSOURI AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OVER THIS AREA FLASH
FLOODING OR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND.

JULY