Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
245 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 1996

FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS AND TEMPS. WRMFNT CURRENTLY EXTDS FM
SRN TX PNHDL EWD INVOF RED RVR AND THRU CNTRL LA. TIMING OF FNT
CRITICAL FOR MAX TEMPS AS WELL AS PCPN CHCS. ETA/NGM BOTH SHOW MORE OF A
NW-SE ORIENTATION BY 00Z WED. THIS SEEMS RSNBL AS STG SLY LLVL JET
DVLPS ACRS THE PLAINS. EXPC WRMFNT TO BE CLOSE TO PROG FCST AND OVR ERN
KS BY THIS EVE. THIS BNDRY LIKELY TO BE FOCUS FOR TSTMS LTR THIS AFTN
AND EVE WITH INCRG WAA AND APCHG H7 VORT LOBE PROVIDING ADDNL LIFT.

LTST STLT IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS ONE SHRTWV MOVG EWD INTO WRN SD/NEB
WITH ACTIVE MCS OVR SD AND ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVG INTO NM WITH SCT CNVTN
OVR THE SRN PLAINS. THIS LEAVES KS/MO IN BTN FOR THE TIME BEING. HWVR
GOOD NW-SE BACLIN ZONE SET UP ACRS KS SO SHUD SEE INCR IN SCT RW- THIS
MRNG WITH TSTMS HOLDING OFF TILL THIS AFTN/EVE. BEST UVV AND PVA MOVS
ACRS CWA THIS AFTN AND ERY EVE SO WILL STRUCTURE POPS ACCORDINGLY. WITH
PROXIMITY OF WRMFNT NR CWA AND AMS DSTBLZG CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR
STORM. CNSDRBL CLDNS TODAY AS CWA WILL BE ON COOL SIDE OF FNT SO WILL
NOT SEE MAX EFFECT OF WAA. GUID VALUES RSNBL. SHUD GET BREEZY BY THIS
AFTN WITH A MORE SLY COMPONENT TO WIND.

VERY WRM AIR MOVS INTO MO ON WED WITH WRM MID LVL TEMPS CAPPING AMS.

MCI  70/64  53

JULY

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR NORTH MISSOURI UNTIL 3PM...
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN NORTH
MISSOURI...

FORECAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MISSOURI THROUGH 3PM.
LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THESE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUNDS...THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN IN EXCESS OF ONE TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCHES AN HOUR...COULD
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. PERSONS SHOULD AVOID DRIVING THROUGH ROADS
COVERED WITH WATER.

CIVIL DEFENSE COORDINATORS...HAM RADIO AND SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BE
REQUIRED AGAIN THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AS WARM
AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE RE-DEVELOPMENT STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP IN NEBRASKA AND IOWA...AND
SHIFT SOUTHWARD I`NTO NORTH MISSOURI.

SMITH