Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
143 PM CDT THU MAY 16 1996

COMBINATION OF KDMX AND KDVN RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A DEFINITE "TWIST" TO
THE CONVECTION. NOTICABLE "SWIRL" FROM VORTICITY MAXIMUM GENERATED BY
THIS MORNING'S MCC. NEW NGM HAS PICKED UP ON FEATURE MOVING IT ACROSS
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND WITH WARM FRONT
IN VCNTY... EXPECT TRW TO CONTINUE TO FIRE AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS OVERHEAD. SOME CELLS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN IOWA NEAR WARM FRONT
MAY BECOME SVR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL A
THREAT AS WELL. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... CELL IN SOUTHWEST BENTON COUNTY
DUMPED 2.1 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR (FFSMLI ISSUED).

FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT EXTENT OF CONVECTION. NGM SEEMS TO HAVE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION IN REGARDS TO SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF MCS
INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE NVA IN WAKE OF UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. NGM
CONTINUES TREND OF LIFTING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
RECENT MODELS RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO FAST WITH NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION. HOWEVER... TONIGHT A DIFFERENT STORY SINCE AMPLIFICATION
OF UPPER FLOW (RIDGING IN RESPONSE TO TROFING OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES)
LEGIT. EXTRAPOLATE WARM FRONT PASSAGE AT MLI AROUND 05Z... AND CID AND
DBQ TOWARD 12Z. ANOTHER MCS COULD DEVELOP TO WEST LATE TONIGHT AND TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. ONCE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF
CWA... ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE "CAPPED" WITH LITTLE HOPE OF CONVECTION.
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRI IN WARM SECTOR AND
WORDING OF ZONES SHOULD REFLECT. AS UPPER TROF...REFLECTED AT SFC BY A
COLD FRONT... APPROACHS CWA FRIDAY NIGHT... ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR
POSSIBLE. MID LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD ERODE CAP.

CID  63/50   DBQ  59/60   MLI 63/30   BRL 65/20

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