Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
245 AM CDT THU JUN 6 1996

VERY DIFFICULT SURFACE ANNALYSIS DUE TO THUNDERSTORM NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND MORE THAN A COUPLE OF FRONTS.  00Z DVN SOUNDING SHOWED
IT ALL... JUST NOT MUCH CAPE TO BE HAD.  LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG
BOUNDARIES WERE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN HOWEVER.
LAST BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADED OUT OF THE AREA AT THIS
TIME.

HAVE NOT HAD TIME TO LOOK AT MUCH GRIDDED DATA TONIGHT BUT CURRENT
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS BLOWING BY THE AREA AND AM CONCERNED ABOUT
POTENTIAL FOR FOG THIS MORNING.  DEPENDS ON HOW LONG WINDS REMAIN FROM
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION.  THEY ARE LIGHT SO ANY
EFFECT WILL BE SMALL BUT IF THEY REMAIN NW 3-5 AND FOG... SHOULD THEY
RETURN SOUTHERLY OR GO LIGHT VISIBILITIES BELOW 3 ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
PROLONGED CLEARING.  BEST CHANCE APEARS NORTH OF I80.

BELIEVE THAT THE TRUE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BY THE AREA AROUND THE LUNCH
HOUR AND TOO EARLY TO HAVE TO WORRY MUCH ABOUT POPS ALONG THE FRONT.
WORRY ABOUT THE FATE OF THE MCS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IF IT WILL MAKE IT
THIS WAY.  THE 500 SHORT WAVE REMAINS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SENDS A NICE
VORT MAX THIS WAY AFTER FROPA.  ALL THIS WILL GIVE US ENOUGH CHANCES AT
SOME RAIN SO WILL GO WITH 40 POPS TODAY... BUT BELIEVE THE HIGH
GUIDANCE POPS ARE OVER DONE.  WOULD PREFER TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
MAINLY IN THE MORNING AND HANDLE IN THE NOW DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF
THE SYSTEM. THE ATMOSPHERE IS/WILL BE TO WORKED OVER AND WIND FIELDS TO
DISTURBED FOR MUCH ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION SO LIGHT QPF.

CID 073/40  DBQ 070/40  MLI 073/40   BRL 075/40

SORRY FOR THE DELAYED DISCUSSION...  HIRSCH

ILZ034-035-060700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
130 AM CDT THU JUN 6 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MC DONOUGH AND HANCOCK COUNTIES IN
ILLINOIS HAS BEEN CANCELED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THIS AREA HAS BEEN CANCELED.  NO
SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRED IN THIS PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A TENTH TO JUST OVER HALF AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES.

A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.  THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA WITH AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE.

HIRSCH

IAZ053-054-061125-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
335 AM CDT THU JUN 6 1996

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 6AM FOR JONES
   AND JACKSON COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES SHOW OVER 3
INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY
AND MUCH OF NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ENDED HOWEVER WATER STILL COVERS THE ROADS IN A FEW LOW LYING
LOCATIONS.  THE WATER IS BEGINING TO RECEDE AT THIS TIME.

THE STREAMS AND CREEKS EFFECTED ARE THE FARM... NORTH FORK... OTTER...
AND LYTLE CREEKS WHICH DRAIN INTO THE MAQUOKETA RIVER.  SIGNIFICANT
RISES MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTH FORK NEAR CRAB TOWN BETWEEN NOW AND 6 AM
WHERE SEVERAL OF THESE CREEKS COME TOGEATHER.

AGAIN NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND SO THIS URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM.

FLOODING OF SMAxLL STREAMS...STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...
CAN BE EXPECTED. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING AND
NOT TO DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

HIRSCH

IAZ076>078-087>089-ILZ024>026-061130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
423 AM CDT THU JUN 6 1996

...NEWLY DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POSIBILITY OF FLOODING...

A NEWLY DEVELOPED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENING JUST NORTH OF AN
OTTUMWA TO GALESBURG LINE THREATENS TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE LINE AND THIS
WILL PRODUCE A NARROW LINE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THIS TYPE OF SENERIO IS CALLED TRAINING... AND IS KNOWN TO CAUSE
EXTREME FLOODING IN SOME SITUATIONS.  THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WILL LIKEY BE
ISSUED WHEN THE EXACT LOCATION OFL THE LINE IS KNOWN.

PERSONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WILL NEED TO MONITOR THEIR
SITUATION AND PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING.

HIRSCH