Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Detroit, MI

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
300 PM EDT THU APR 11 1996

A STRONG VORT MAX OVER NORTHEAST IOWA HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THIS
AFTERNOON. ADAPS SHOWING SURFACE MOISTURE POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING IN THE THETA-E RIDGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY ARE ELEVATED.
THEREFORE SURFACE LIFTED INDICES ARE USELESS. LIFTING A PARCEL AT
700 MB ON THE DTX 18Z SOUNDING PRODUCED A LIFTED INDEX OF -3. THEREFORE
ATMOSPHERE NORTH OF SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY UNSTABLE.
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL IS IN THE 35,000 FOOT RANGE...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH THIS HEIGHT. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF
LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EARLY TONIGHT AS VORT MAX MOVES SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SINCE THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY ELEVATED...THE
PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

.DTX...SNOW ADVISORY...FAR WRN UPPER MI...LATE TONIGHT.

BOYNE

MIZ016>083-130900-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1100 AM EDT FRI APR 12 1996

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR MICHIGAN...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MUSKEGON TO THE TIP OF THE THUMB.  THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF
MUSKEGON...GRAND RAPIDS...KALAMAZOO...LANSING...SAGINAW...FLINT...AND
DETROIT.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TRAVERSE
CITY TO OSCODA...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  THIS AREA
INCLUDES TRAVERSE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...LUDINGTON...AND WEST BRANCH.
PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.  FOR SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...NORTH OF THE TRAVERSE
CITY TO OSCODA LINE...BUT THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH TONIGHT.  A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN IOWA LATE THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
LOWER MICHIGAN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.  THE FRONT WILL SEPARATE VERY WARM
AIR TO ITS SOUTH AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH.  THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT.  HOWEVER...AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
APPROACHES MICHIGAN TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT.

HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.  HAIL MAY BE AS LARGE AS AROUND
AN INCH IN DIAMETER.  ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TOWARD THE FAR SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN BORDER.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST AT 50 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...AND TO LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION
STATIONS...FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.

DJF

MIZ060-061-062-053-054-063-055-049-048-047-122345-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT PONTIAC MI
149 PM EDT FRI APR 12 1996

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL 800 PM...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL 800 PM.  THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...MIDLAND...BAY...HURON...TUSCOLA...SANILAC...LAPEER.
ST CLAIR...GENESEE...SHIAWASSEE...SAGINAW.  A FEW COMMUNITIES INCLUDED
ARE FLINT...SAGINAW...MIDLAND...LAPEER...CARO AND OWOSSO.

AT 149 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS HOUGHTON LAKE TO MOUNT PLEASANT THEN SOUTHWEST TO GRAND
RAPIDS.  THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATCH AREA BETWEEN 200 PM AND 230 PM AND THEN CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 3/4 INCH HAIL OR LARGER.

WHEN STORMS APPROACH MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER.  CONTINUE TO LISTEN TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS.

NADOLSKI

MIZ016>083-122150-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
245 PM EDT FRI APR 12 1996

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 69.  INCLUDED IN THE WATCH
AREA ARE THE COMMUNITIES OF OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...BAD AXE...
MIDLAND...AND SAGINAW.

AT 240 PM DOPPLER RADAR WAS INDICATING AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAGINAW BAY SOUTHWEST TO THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA...
THEN SOUTH TO ELKHART INDIANA. MARBLE SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AT 239
PM NEAR SAGINAW. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE IN THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE
INDIANA STATE LINE...WERE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT.

THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 50 MPH...AND THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE STORMS WILL BE ALONG A LINE FROM SANDUSKY TO FLINT TO JUST
EAST OF LANSING BY 4 PM. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST REACHING
THE DETROIT METROPOLITAN AREA AFTER 5 PM.

AT SIGNS OF AN IMPENDING STORM...TOWERING THUNDERHEADS...DARKENING
SKIES...LIGHTNING AND INCREASING WINDS...MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

MSE

MIZ016>083-130010-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
315 PM EDT FRI APR 12 1996

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN UNTIL 8 PM...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN UNTIL 8 PM...LIVINGSTON...OAKLAND...MACOMB...
WASHTENAW...WAYNE...LENAWEE...AND MONROE. MEANWHILE...THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT HAS BEEN IN EFFECT NORTH OF THAT AREA REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM. AS A RESULT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH 8 PM. SOME
COMMUNITIES IN A WATCH INCLUDE DETROIT...MONROE...ANN ARBOR...
PONTIAC...FLINT...LAPEER...BAD AXE...SAGINAW...AND MIDLAND.

AT 310 PM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS INDICATING AN AREA
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN...SOUTHWEST TO NEAR LANSING...THEN SOUTH ALONG
ROUTE 69 TO COLDWATER MICHIGAN.  THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL
WAS REPORTED AT 3 PM IN SHIAWASSEE COUNTY NEAR OWOSSO.

BY 4 PM...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST TO A LINE FROM AROUND
LAPEER...TO FLINT...TO HOWELL...TO JUST EAST OF JACKSON. BY 500 PM...
THE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF
DETROIT...INCL<UDING THE PONTIAC AND ANN ARBOR AREAS.

IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTDOORS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CHECK THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION AND KEEP A WEATHER EYE ON THE SKY.

MSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MICHIGAN
330 PM EDT FRI APR 12 1996

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION...t.

0315 PM    OWOSSO                    MI   .75 INCH HAIL
04/12/96   SHIAWASSEE

CAMPBELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MICHIGAN
416 PM EDT FRI APR 12 1996

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION...b.

0405 PM    HUDSON                    MI   1 INCH HAIL
04/12/96   LENAWEE