Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
345 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 1996

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE CHANCE OF TSTMS TONIGHT AND SAT.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR AMA TO LBL TO
JUST SOUTH OF TOP AND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE
MODELS ALL INDICATE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS JUST NORTH OF GAGE WITH SFC LIS
BETWEEN -2 AND -8 ACROSS THE CWA. NSAT INDICATING SOME DEVELOPMENT IN
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE RIGHT ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION. THE
CAP HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA ALL DAY...SO EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION IN TEXAS TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE VERY
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM EHA TO GCK TO HYS HAS REMAINED CLOUDY AND COOLER ALL DAY.
THEREFORE...DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH OF A CHANCE OF TSTMS DUE TO NOT
AS MUCH SIGNIFICANT SFC HEATING.

ON SATURDAY...ETA SHOWS AN INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING STATIONARY.
THIS COMBINATION IS ENOUGH TO AT LEAST KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST. GUIDANCE INDICATES DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S OR
LOW 60S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN
BASED ON WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT MAKES ANY NORTHWARD MOVEMENT ON
SATURDAY.

DDC  062/082 058/073 054 634
GCK  060/081 056/074 052 634
EHA  058/084 056/075 054 634
LBL  060/084 057/075 053 634
HYS  061/078 054/072 050 634
P28  066/085 061/076 055 634

PARKIN

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-240000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1115 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 1996

SYNOPSIS: A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL BRING LOTS
OF MOISTURE UP FROM TEXAS WHILE A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THESE STORMS COULD
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BRINGING HAIL...
HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADOES.  THE BEST CHANCE OF TORNADOES
APPEARS TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL LINE
LINE WITH A LESSER THREAT OF TORNADOES NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE.
SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ON STANDBY FROM MIDAFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

NICHOLS