Severe Thunderstorm Warning 481, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
355 AM CDT WED SEP 25 1996

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CHANCES FOR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND RAIN ON THURSDAY. 08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW BEGINNING
TO WRAP UP NICELY OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH WINDS OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KTS. ETA AND AVN AGAIN ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE NGM CONTINUES TO KEEP IT
TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD AND BE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ATMOSPHERE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AGREE
WITH SWODY1 THAT THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE PLAINS WILL
MEET UP WITH THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET
OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO
CARRIED POPS IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AS MORE SUNSHINE THERE SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE SURFACE HEATING. ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL THEN BECOME OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY POPS OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY. TEMPS BECOME THE NEXT CHALLENGE. SATELLITE
SHOWING SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...AND
FEEL THAT THEY MAY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE THERE...SO HAVE GONE
WITH HIGHER TEMPS. THE REST OF THE REGION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER MUCH OF THE
MORNING. THIS SHOULD SLOW TEMPS AND HAVE THEREFORE GONE BELOW ALL
GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH COOLER AIR COMING IN BEHIND IT...HAVE CONTINUED TO GO BELOW
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DDC  067/047 053/041 049  456
GCK  069/046 054/040 050  456
EHA  073/044 058/039 051~  356
LBL  072/045 056/040 052  356
HYS  065/043 052/039 048  566
P28  071/051 058/044 051  566

PARKIN

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-260600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1140 AM CDT WED SEP 25 1996

SYNOPSIS: A LARGE AREA OF LOW SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BE CENTERED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. UPPER AIR DATA FROM THIS MORNING HAS
INDICATED A CAP WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE CAP WILL WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY
BE BROKEN ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE TO FORM.
IF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

CICCONE