Severe Thunderstorm Warning 457, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
235 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 1996

...SHORT TERM...

CURRENT PROFILER DATA SHOWS H5 S/W OVER ERN NEBRASKA AND WRN IOWA WITH
TRAILING AREA OF PVA BACK DOWN INTO WRN OKLAHOMA. THIS MATCHES VERY WELL
WITH THE ETA UPPER AIR...ESP THE FEATURE OVER WRN OK WHICH SHOWS UP AS
A NICE CLOUD SWIRL ON THE 1K VSBL. THE AVN ALMOST LOOKS BETTER WITH SFC
FEATURES...BUT AS IT HASN/T HAD A CLUE IN A WHILE WILL TEND TOWARDS THE
ETA THIS PACKAGE.

WITH WEAK PVA OVER AREA AND FAIRLY HIGH DWPTS...SOME CONVECTION IS
ALRAEDY ONGOING TO THE E AND SE OF DDC...AND SHOULD GO UNTIL A LITTLE
AFTER SUNSET. THERE ISN/T MUCH IN THE WAY OF SFC CONVERGENCE OVER THE
CWA...WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE FOR OUR CONVECTION THE
PAST FEW DAYS...SO DOUBT THINGS WILL GET TOO ORGANIZED HERE. THERE IS A
WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE KS/CO BORDER...BUT DOUBT THAT MUCH WILL
HAPPEN OUT WEST WHERE ST/STCU HAS LINGERED MUCH OF THE DAY.

WILL KEEP PATCHY MORING FOG IN THE FORECAST...AFTER TALKING WITH ICT
AND GLD...AGREE THAT IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY OVER NRN AND N
CENTRAL KS...WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AHEAD OF
ADVANCING WEAK FRONT. BUT ITS HARD TO TAKE FOG OUT WHEN WE ARE SO MOIST
AND ITS NOT A GIVEN THAT WE WON/T BACK A LITTLE BY DAWN.

...LONG TERM...

ON MONDAY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA...OR STALL OVER
THE AREA...OR JUST DIE HERE...ITS HARD TO SAY. PATTERN OVER THE RECENT
PAST HAS BEEN ONE WHERE TEMPS HAVE REMAINED BELOW NORAML OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE H5 S/WS MOVING ENE ACROSS THE NRN PALINS HAVE
KEPT THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CONISTANTLY OUT OVER THIS AREA WITH
WARMER TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL STRONG CONVECTION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE CASE WITH JUST THE BRIEFEST PUNCH OF WARM AIR ALOFT LATE
TONIGHT/TMRW FOLLOWED BY THE SAME N TO NE FLOW ALOFT AND E TO SE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE THAT HAS KEPT US COOL AND MOIST FOR WEEKS NOW.
AFFOREMENTIONED S/W WILL DIG SE...BRINGING ABUNDANT RAINS OVER OK ONCE
AGAIN...AND PROBABLY ERN KS. OVERALL...THINK WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH
THIS PATTERN...WITH NVA AND NO REAL TRIGGER AND BEST BAROCLINICITY TO
OUR WEST AND SOUTH. AND WHILE I WILL CARRY SLIGHT POPS TOMORROW...WILL
LEAVE THEN OUT MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DDC  065/084 063/084 063 22-
GCK  064/085 062/085 063 22-
EHA  062/087 060/086 063 22-
LBL  064/085 062/085 064 22-
HYS  065/084 061/084 061 32-
P28  068/086 064/086 065 42-

MCAVOY