Severe Thunderstorm Warning 369, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
345 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 1996

SHORT...
S/WV TRF ANALYZED IN WYOMING THIS AM (50H) INTERACTING WITH VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN E COLO AND W KS.  TRW FIRED VERY...VERY RAPIDLY
NORTH OF GLD THIS PM.  THIS IS JUST THE START.  MODELS SOMEWHAT
(SUPRISINGLY) CONSISTENT WITH THIS S/WV (EXCPT AVN)...MVG IT ACRS THE
CWA NXT 12/24 HRS.  STRONG (AT LEAST FOR SUMMER) MID/UPR LVL WIND FIELD
ABOVE INCREASING LOW LVL S/SE FLOW...ALONG WITH THE S/WV AND VERY
UNSTABLE AIR TO ALLOW FOR SVR DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING TORNADOES.  HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AND THOUGHT ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
BUT...WITH THE FAIRLY QUICK STORM MOVEMENT...THE THREAT IS LESSENED.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WLD BE FOR TRAINING.   WL STL HAV TO WATCH CLOSELY.
WENT NEAR GUID ON TEMPS BUT ABOVE ON POPS...ESPLY AVN.

LONG...
CONTINUED NW FLOW WITH OCCASIONAL S/WV'S.  THNK OVERNIGHT MCS WL BE
MOVING OUT IN THE AM SO WENT WITH DECREASING POPS.  ATMOS SHOULD BE
STABALIZED TMRW.  MORE STORMS PSBL TMRW NIGHT IF CONVECTION MOVES OFF
THE FRONT RANGE.  THNK THREAT SHLD BE FURTHER WEST AS EASTERN CWA
SHOULD BE STABLIZED ENUF...BUT STILL NOT RULING OUT.  KEPT POPS OUT FOR
THUR.SDAY BUT THREAT OF CONVECTION VERY LATE IN THE DAY.

DDC 062/082 062/082 063 733
GCK 061/081 062/082 062 733
EHA 063/082 064/083 064 733
LBL 064/082 063/083 063 733
HYS 061/080 060/082 061 722
P28 065/086 066/087 065 743

HUTTON