Severe Thunderstorm Warning 279, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 1996

...CHALLENGE THIS PM IS THE WHOLE FORECAST...

SHORT TERM...19Z SFC CHART SHOWING SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER
NEBRASKA AND INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST KS / NORTHEAST CO.  FRONT HAS
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH TODAY...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS ASSOC WITH
FRONT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ERODING IN NE CO PER GOES IMAGERY.
ELSEWHERE...OLD STATIONARY FRONT FROM DDC/P28 AREA EASTWARD SERVING AS
A CONVERGENCE ZONE.  LOTS OF MOISTURE POOLING IN HLC...HYS AREA AND
SOUTHEASTWARD.  WITH GOOD HEATING...CONVERGENCE ZONE...MOISTURE...AND
ACCAS NOTED OUT WINDOW...COULD SEE SOME ISOL/SCT SVR OVER NORTHERN HALF
CWA AND INTO P28 AREA THIS EVENING PER LATEST SPC GUIDANCE.

LONGER TERM...HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED NGM GUIDANCE AND FOUS NUMBERS AS
THEY HAVE BEEN DOING BETTER LATELY ALTHOUGH HAVE UNDERCUT FWC SOME...
ESPECIALLY NORTH.  INITIALIZATIONS WERE ALL SIMILAR THIS AM HOWEVER.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH CWA AROUND SUNRISE...PROBABLY
WON/T MAKE IT CLEAR INTO OKLA PANHANDLE SUNDAY MORNING THOUGH.

WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHEAST TO EAST DIRECTION (UPSLOPE) AFTER FROPA.
LIKELY TO HAVE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AS THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE.  CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND MOST OF DAY AND INTO
OUT PERIODS. WITH UPSLOPE...MOISTURE...AND FRONT IN AREA...HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP CHANCES GOING THROUGH PERIOD.

DDC 067/086 066/089 065 3D44
GCK 065/086 064/088 064 344
EHA 070/091 068/092 069 233
LBL 069/090 067/091 068 233
HYS 065/082 063/084 064 445
P28 071/093 070/094 069 345

SEARCY

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-070000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1105 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 1996

SYNOPSIS:  A COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE SOUTH TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND UPSLOPE FLOW
THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
KANSAS WILL HELP TO SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION.  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
SCOTT CITY TO LARNED.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING.

SEARCY