Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 1996

FCST PBLM CONTS TO BE CNVCTN THRU FCST PD.

IN SHORT TERM...MONSOONAL MSTR CONTS TO WRAP ARND UPR HI OVER LWR
MISSOURI VALLEY AND WL CONT TO FEED DEEP MSTR WWRD THRU HI PLNS RGN.
DDC RAOB THIS AM NOT REPRESENTATIVE WITH LO LVL MSTR AND XPCT THETAE
RDG TO RETROGRADE WWRD THRU THE AFTN. ETA MDL IMAGES ON GARP AGREE
WITH >360K THETAE RDG OVR W KS TNGT.  MNWHL...SAT IMAGES HV VORT MOVG
N OUT OF XTRM E NM TO ARRIVE THIS EVE IN PNHNDLS. THIS FEATURE BEST
HANDLED BY NGM. WITH THIS COMBO AND CAPES WELL OVR 4000 J/KG ON
MODIFIED AND PROG SOUNDINGS WL JUMP POPS TNGT TO LIKELY. PCBL H20
OVR 150 PCNT OF NORMAL. RICKS METHOD HAS LCL AMNTS AT 8 INCHES IN
ISOLD STORMS SO WL ALSO GO FFW ACRS MUCH OF AREA FOR OVRNGT PD.

IN LONGER TERM...FCST PRBLM CONTS TO BE TIMING OF S/W'S IN SSWRLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.  RIDGE AXIS CONTS TO BE NRLY STNRY FROM NRN PLNS INTO SRN MS
VALLEY THRU 48 HRS.  ALL THREE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR DIFFS IN STRENGTH OF FEATURES.  MODELS HINT
AT ANOTHER S/W COMING UP FM SRN PLNS WED EVE/NGT. WILL WORD FCST POPS
ACRDNGLY.  MODELS KEEP SWRN KS IN FAVORABLE AREA ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FOR CONTD MOIST ADVCTN FROM TROPICS.  THIS SHOULD KEEP POSS
OF TRW AROUND CLEAR THRU XTNDED PD AND THNK XTNDED FORECAST SHOULD
REFLECT THIS.  NOT VERY GOOD DRYING CONDS FOR HARVEST OPNS.

FWC/FAN TMP FCSTS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE.  WILL GENRLLY FOLLOW XCPT WILL KNOCK OFF A COUPLE DEG FOR
TNGTS LOWS IN RAIN COOLED AIR.
.SW KS...FFA TNGT KSZ061>065-074>080-084>089

DDC 061/090 064/090 063 613
GCK 062/091 063/091 062 613
EHA 062/091 063/091 062 613
LBL 063/092 065/092 063 613
HYS 063/089 064/089 063 613
P28 067/094 069/094 068 713

GERARD

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