Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT MON MAY 6 1996

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE CLEARED OFF
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL LOCATED NORTH OF A LINE
FROM TRIBUNE TO AROUND MEDICINE LODGE. TEMPERATURES IN THE CLEAR AREAS
INTO THE 80S WITH THE REST OF THE CWA STILL IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
DRYLINE STILL WAY TO THE WEST WITH DEWPOINTS AT 19Z STILL IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE
ABUNDANCE OF HEATING IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...THIS SHOULD BE THE
FOCAL POINT FOR THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
THE MOISUTRE COMING IN WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW THE STORMS TO PROPAGATE TO THE EAST AND LIKEY
BECOME AN MCS BY THE TIME IT GETS OVER EASTERN KANSAS...WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EVEN MORE UNSTABLE. AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE THE STORMS BEGIN AROUND SUNSET IN THE WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES IN
AND LIKELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 07Z OR 08Z. WITH THE SFC FLOW STAYING
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...COULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOP BY
SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER GRAPHICS INDICATE RAPID DRYING AND
850 TEMPS RISE INTO THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT
CURRENT FORECAST OF PARTLY CLOUDY LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS SHOULD RISE
NICELY UNDER THE EARLY MAY SUN.

DDC  056/085 058/088 058 504
GCK  055/086 057/090 056 504
EHA  057/089 059/094 060 301
LBL  056/088 057/092 058 501
HYS  052/080 055/087 056 504
P28  057/086 061/091 062 604

PARKIN

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-070000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
456 PM CDT MON MAY 6 1996

SYNOPSIS: A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS FROM NORTHWEST
OF ULYSSES TO NEAR RICHFIELD AND ON INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT
500 PM CDT.  MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH. THE AIRMASS OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKALHOMA PANHANDLE IS SHOWING LIFTED INDEXES
OF -6 TO -8 WITH 2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF B+. SUBCLOUD LAYER HODOGRAPHS
SHOW A STRONG VEERING PATTERN AND MIXING SURFACE MIXING RATIO CONVERGENCE
IS IN EXCESS OF 2 G/KG/HR. A FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION IS ALSO PRESENT.

SIGNIFICANT ROTATING CONVECTION IS LIKELY IN SOUzTHWEST KANSAS. COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CALL STORM SPOTTERS TO ASSEMBLY POINTS.

JOHNSON