Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR CCF NUMBERS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
326 PM CDT FRI AUG 23 1996

...MAIN FCST PROBLEM TNGT IS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND FLOODING...

BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER S TIER WITH SLOW MOVING STRONG TSRA
DVLP RAPIDLY...ALREADY AROUND 2 INCHES IN N BARBER CNTY ATTM. LOW
LVL CONVERG/WEAK CAP/AND VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT ALL POINT TO POSSIBLE
FLOODING POTENTIAL. WILL NEED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM PRATT TO P28
AND ELKHART TO MEADE AND COLDWATER. VERY LOW FF GUIDANCE IN PLACE AND
SATURATED GROUND FROM LAST NIGHTS RAIN POINT TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY
IN BARBER COUNTY.

WILL GO WITH 20-30 PCT NORTH FROM SYRACUSE TO DODGE AND ST JOHN FOR
SCATTERED VARIETY AND NO POPS NORTH TIER.

TMRW...ANOTHER SHRTWV IN NW FLOW COULD SET OF MORE TSRA IN FAR WEST
AND ALONG CONVERG ZONE ALONG LEE TROF...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY.
...LONG TERM...

SHRTWV TO CONT INTO REST OF CWA TMRW NIGHT AND HAVE ADDED SMALL POPS
MOST AREAS FOR THIS...WITH CONT OF MOIST FLOW FROM DOLLY REMNANTS.

N TO NWERLY FLOW CONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH NO GREAT
WARMUP EXPECTED. SHRTWVS WILL CONT TO BRING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HIGH THETA-E AIR IN PLACE. NEXT BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT.

HAVE GONE CLOSE TO FWC GUID FOR TEMPS TNGT AND TMRW AND LOWERED
SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS.

DDC 064/084 065/085 213
GCK 063/084 064/085 213
EHA 064/085 065/088 633
LBL 065/085 065/086 633
HYS 063/083 065/082 -13
P28 066/088 068/089 613

KRUSE

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-240600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
314 PM CDT FRI AUG 23 1996

SYNOPSIS:  A COLD FRONT HAD NEARLY STALLED OUT OVER THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
EASTERN COLORADO...AND SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FROM THERE TURN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MEDICINE LODGE
VICINITY.  THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HEAVY RAINS OVER RECENT DAYS...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS LAST NIGHT IN
PORTIONS OF MORTON COUNTY OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...HAVE CREATED SATURATED SOILS AND RIVERS AND
STREAMS FULL OF WATER.

WHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVING.  THE SLOW
MOVEMENT...COMBINED WITH VERY HIGH MOISTURE AMOUNTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
...MAY LEAD TO FLOODING RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL BE ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA
BORDER.  SPECIFICALLY...THE COUNTIES MOST THREATENED BY THE HEAVY RAIN
ARE...MORTON...STEVENS...SEWARD...MEADE...CLARK...COMANCHE...BARBER...
AND PRATT.  INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ELKHART...LIBERAL...MEDICINE LODGE
AND PRATT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TO MONITOR RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS AND TO LOCATE HIGHWAY
FLOODING.

SEARCY