Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
327 PM CDT SUN AUG 4 1996

FCST CHALLENGE TGT IS AMOUNT OF CONVECTION.  TWO SEPERATE S/WV TRFS TO
AFFECT THE CWA...ONE WAS ANALYZED IN SOUTHWEST NM ON THIS MORNINGS UA
DATA...WITH STRONGER WV IN THE GREAT BASIN.  NGM AND ETA HANDLE THE
SYSTEMS DIFFERENTLY WITH THE NGM HOLDING ON TO THE NM S/WV A LITTLE
STRONGER.  BASED ON PROFILERS...THE NM S/WV DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT
STRONG BUT MAY BE ENUF TO HELP BREAK THE CAP ACRS THE AREA.  HIGH
THETA-E AIR REMAINS ACRS THE AREA...THERE IS A LOT OF INSTABILITY.
CONVECTION FIRING THIS PM IN SOUTHEAST COLO AND FAR NORTHEAST NM ALONG
WESTERN EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTER AS SEEN BY WATER VAPOR LOOP.  CAA IN THE
MID LEVELS COUPLED WITH AT LEAST SOME DYNAMICS AND JUICY BNDRY LYR AIR
SHLD BE ENUF TO SET OFF AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION TGT.  WENT WITH 50/50
POPS WHICH WILL ALSO BE CONSISTENT WITH GOING FCST.  A SVR STORM OR TWO
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BIGGEST MCS WL
BE IN NE/IA...THERE COULD ALSO BE A DECENT COMPLEX DEVELOP IN W KS.

IN LATER PDS...ETA IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE GREAT BASIN S/WV BUT WITH
ALL THREE (NGM/ETA/AVN) BRINGING PVA/PIVA ACRS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.  SO
THERE MAY BE CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SFC TO RESPOND LATER TMRW TO
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES.  SFC TO REMAIN
MOIST WITH THE WEAKEST CAP IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA.  ANY SFC
CONVERGENCE COULD SET UP A TRW SO WENT WITH LATE AFTN POPS FAR EAST
WITH 20/40 POPS EAST HALF TMRW NIGHT WITH UVV AGAIN FROM WK S/WV.

DDC 068/094 071/096 071 512
GCK 066/095 069/098 069 512
EHA 065/096 067/098 068 511
LBL 066/095 068/097 069 512
HYS 069/093 071/098 072 523^
P28 074/098 073/099 073 424

HUTTON