Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
317 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 1996

...SHORT TERM...
QSTN TNGT IS LOCATION AND EXTENT OF DVLPG CNVCTN.  DDC RAOB MODIFIED
FOR CURRENT TEMP/DWPT TRENDS AND UPSTRM ADVTN ALOFT GIVE CAPES OF ARND
4000 J/KG AND LI/S ARND MINUS 10. MSTR CONTS TO FOCUS ALG WK WRM OVR
W KS WHILE LO LVL CNVGNT FLOW FM S-SE CONTS. SHR PROFILE STILL HAS
GOOD VEERING THO SPEED SHR IS SMALL THUS XPCT ANY CNVCTN FIRING TO BE
MCS LIKE...ESPLY AS MDT LLJ SETS UP LATER TNGT. NGM MDL OF CHOICE IN
SHORT TERM AS PROFILER H5 WINDS AND VORT ALMOST IDENTICAL TO 6HR FCST
FM NGM. THIS VORT MOVG SE ALG LO LVL CNVGNT ZN AND SHD FIRE TSTMS
SOON.  WL LIMIT BEST POPS TO WRN 2/3RDS OF ZNS ONLY THIS EVE AS
SBSDNC/NVA CUTS OFF ACTIVITY LTR TNGT.  MDL BRINGS WK PVA INTO RGN
OVR THE FNT TWRDS MRNG AND WL CARRY SML POPS AGN THEN.

AS TO WINDS/TEMPS...HIGH THETAE AIR PERSISTS AGN TNGT MOST AREAS THUS
SL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE FCST. AS LLJ WORKS E AFT MDNGT WNDS TO DMNSH
IN W AND INCR AND BECOME MORE SRLY IN ERN ZNS.

...LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO AGRESSIVE IN TRYING TO WARM AND DRY OUT
WESTERN KS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OF THE
AVN/ETA...BOTH OF WHICH PUSH OUR SFC TEMPS UP TO THE 100-105 RANGE BY
SUNDAY...AND THIS IN DDC...NOT THE USUALLY BALMY FAR SW CWA. THIS WILL
NOT HAPPEN AS WE ARE WAY TOO MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 6 INCHES
OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN IN JULY. AS ICT POINTED OUT...WE ARE 2 INCHES
ABOVE THEM IN THE RAINFALL DEPT THIS YEAR. MONSOON IS STILL QUITE
STRONG IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH PERPETUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED STILL
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR. WHILE TROF IN THE WEST SHOULD HELP TO DRY OUT
THE NRN ROCKIES...ABUNDANT CONVECTION OVER MOST OF WESTERN CO INDICATES
THAT THE PARADE OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED S/WS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...AND WITH MINOR S/W ALOFT...THERE SHOULD BE SOME
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

DDC 065/091 067/092 067 423
GCK 066/092 067/093 067 423
EHA 068/096 066/097 064 402
LBL 068/092 068/093 068 423
HYS 063/090 065/091 067 423
P28 070/092 070/092 069 223

MCAVOY/JOHNSON