Tornado Warning 8, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
945 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 1996

ZONE SUGGESTIONS...
...PIT/PHL...COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. SHOULD BE MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT THAN PAST 24HRS.
THINK BEST THREAT WILL BE SE SXNS.

...DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAINS ARE A HUMBLING REMINDER OF THE POWER OF THE
MCS. ACTIVITY FIRED LATE IN DAY OVER WISCONSIN AND BLEW UP TO AN
MCS AS CROSSED LAKES INTO NRN PA. ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY
LEAVING BEHIND A HUMID AIRMASS WAITING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CRASH
INTO IT.

COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING MAX HEATING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. SHUD SEE RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AS COMPENSATING
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MCS DRIES US OUT AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. COLD FRONT
WILL BE HEADING INTO FAIRLY UNSTABLE VERY HUMID AIRMASS BUT AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF FACTORS WILL BE WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SEVERE. BIGGEST PLAYER WILL BE VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. NEXT
FACTOR WILL BE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. POSITIVE FACTORS WILL BE
DEVELOPING LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET MOVING DOWN OVER REGION ON TOP
OF AT LEAST SOME MEASURE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. STRONG
P-VORT MAX DROPPING SE ACROSS REGION SHOULD AID IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT. WUD DRAW LINE FROM ABOUT IPT TO AOO WITH BEST
CHC SEVERE SE OF THE LINE. MESO AND SYNOPTIC ETA PAINT LI/SSI'S IN
THE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE RANGE...HOLDING BEST INSTABILITY BACK IN OHIO
VALLEY. W`ESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET FCST TO EXCEED 40KT. WINDS ARE
WESTERLY IN LOW LEVELS BUT FCST TO NW UP TO 500MB. GOOD SHEAR
PROFILES FOR ANYTHING THAT DOES MANAGE TO FIRE.

LA CORTE

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>05
3-056>059-063>066-191600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1015 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 1996

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 804 FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
HAS BEEN CANCELED.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DIMINISHED FOR THE TIME BEING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE~ REGION.  SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY NEED
TO BE REACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAD