Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 PM EDT WED JUN 12 1996

HERE WE GO AGAIN?   LATEST 88D LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA.  MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY ATTM IS EAST OF UNV...BASICALLY OVER THE PHI COUNTIES IN
OUR CWA.  A DETAILED SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WHAT COULD BE A WEAK
BUBBLE HIGH OVER WESTERN PA ATTM.  PERHAPS COINCIDENTALLY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE "HIGH" WITH NO
ACTIVITY FROM BFD TO AOO.

NO SATELLITE IMAGERY ON RAMSDIS OR INTERNET...HAD TO RELY ON
MICROSWISS.  THE LATEST VISIBLE LOOP SEEMS TO INDICATE A COMMA
HEAD MOVING INTO WV ATTM.  THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH SOME
ORGANIZATION TO RAIN/SHOWERS OVER EASTERN WV ATTM.  MODELS SEEM
TO INDICATE THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA.  MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST
THAT CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WOULD BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE
MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

WITH PCPL WATERS RUNNING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...AND
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO BE
WORRIED ABOUT FLOODING THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL
STREAMS/CREEKS.  PHL/PIT...ANY THOUGHTS OF FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING?  UPPER FLOW A LITTLE FASTER
THAN YESTERDAY...SO WOULD EXPECT A LITTLE FASTER MOVEMENT ON THIS
AFTERNOON/S STORMS.  FFG WAS EXCEEDED YESTERDAY IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS.  STILL HAVE CXURRENT FFW IN FRANKLIN COUNTY...AND WITH
ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN...THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

JUNG

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-130000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PENNSYLVANIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1150 AM EDT WED JUN 12 1996

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN KANSAS CITY INDICATES THAT THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTAIL OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...THE
THUNDERSTORMSh HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JUNG

PAZ041-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-130000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
245 PM EDT WED JUN 12 1996

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EFFECTIVE
UNTIL 800 PM FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY OF PENNSYLVANIA...

THE COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE:

ADAMS... LEBANON... CUMBERLAND... PERRY... DAUPHIN... YORK... LANCASTER...
SCHUYLKILL... COLUMBIA... NORTHUMBERLAND... UNION... LYCOMING... SNYDER...
MONTOUR AND SULLIVAN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WIND AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS...WHICH MEAN SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

JUNG