Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
215 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 1996

...ZONE SUGGESTIONS...
CHC POPS RW/TRW NEXT 3 PD/S. PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.

...DISCUSSION...
KCCX 88D SHOWS BKN LINE OF RW/TRW WORKG INTO NC PA. ACVTY APPEARS
TO HV FORMED FROM CAA ALOFT ASSCTD S/W FEATURE THAT WAS LIFTG
THRU PA. LATEST SFC ANYLS SHOWS A TROUGH ACRS PA CLSE TO WHERE
CNVTN WAS LOCATED ON RADAR THAT PROBABLY WAS FORMED DUE TO LATENT
HEATING FROM THE CNVTN ITSELF. ACVTY WILL BE OUT OF CWA BEFORE 5
AM AND PROBABLY CAN BE DEALT WITH IN NOWCTP ONLY AND NOT IN AM
ZONES. 8 KM WV IMAGERY SHOWS ANTHER UPR LVL S/W ACRS SRN APPLCNS.
I TIME THIS FEATURE TO WRN PA BY 12Z. ETA SEEMS TO HNDL THIS
FEATURE THE BEST AS SEEN IN THE 500 MB HGHT/VORT FIELDS. THIS
NEXT FEATURE CUD SET OFF MORE RW/TRW BUT EXPECT IT WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO TIME OF DAY. JUST (30 POP) SCTRD ACVTY FOR ZONES
THIS MORN.

8 KM WV IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGER S/W TROUGH WORKG ARND UPR LVL
CIRCN CENTER OVR MO ERLY THIS MORN. ALL THREE MODELS CAPTURE THIS
FEATURE AND BRING A HEALTHY LOOKING VORT-LOBE ACRS PA BTWN 00Z
AND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE ARRIVES CLOSE TO THE MAX B.L TEMPS
LATE IN THE DAY AND LIKELY WILL SUPPLY ENUF UVV/S TO CONDITION
ENV FOR ANTHER ROUND OF CNVTN FOR CWA. END RESULT... SCTRD RW/TRW
THIS AFTRN INTO OVRNGT HOURS... MUCH LIKE THIS MORN!

FOR WED... ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT UPR LVL LO BEGINS TO LIFT AND
OPEN UP AS IT WORKS TWD AREA. 500 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BY WED TOO WITHIN THE UPR LOW CNTR/TROUGH INDICATIVE OF
WEAKENING. MODELS INDICATE ANTHER VORT LOBE/SHRT WV FEATURE
ROUNDS BASE OF LONG WV UPR TROUGH AND AFFECTS PA AGAIN WITH THE
SAME RESULT... CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR RW/TRW WED.

NICOSIA