Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
130 PM EDT MON JUN 17 1996

...ZONE SUGGESTIONS...

...PIT/PHL...ADAP SHOWS DECENT CAP AND HIGHER LI'S MAINTAINING OVER
NRN ZONES. HAVE NO PROBLEM IN AT LEAST DOWN PLAYING THUNDER UP
NORTH TONITE. MAYBE WORD AS SHOWERS...WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
POSSIBLE OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. CELLS THAT HAVE POPPED UP
ELSEWHERE SO FAR SEEM RELUCTANT TO MOVE VERY FAR OR FAST. MAY BE
DEALING WITH FLASH FLOODING IN SPOTS...BUT WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO
SAY WHAT AREA(S) WILL BE MOST UNDER THE GUN. FAVOR MENTION OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS EXCEPT MAYBE OVER NORTH WHERE AIRMASS IS A BIT MORE
STABLE AND DRIER.

...DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM AM PACKAGE DISCUSSION...WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS
STATE SEPARATES THE SOUPY AIR OVER THE SOUTH FROM THE PLAIN OLD
MUGGY AIR OVER THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL NOT MOVE MUCH IN
TIME JUDGING FROM GRIDDED DATA PRESSURE AND LIFTED INDEX FIELDS.
BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS FOCUS FOR DIURNAL BOUTS OF CONVECTION AT LEAST
AND UNTIL SYSTEM TO OUR WEST DECIDES SOME TIME MAYBE LATER THIS
WEEK TO DIE OR MOVE THROUGH.

SYSTEM MOVEMENT FROM WEST WILL BE HINDERED BY HINTS AT DEVELOPING
REX BLOCK PATTERN AS IT CLOSES OFF AND CRAWLS TWD WRN GR LAKES.
THIS KEEPS HGHTS HIGH OVER ERN SEABOARD AND MAINTAINS FLOW OF HUMID
AIR FOR SVRL DAYS. DEVELOPING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE JET
SLIDES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO NRN NEW ENG AND EVENTUALLY OFF COAST.
THIS HELPS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY WITH TIME. THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL NOT HURT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OF WARM HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

SEE LITTLE CHANGE THRU MID WEEK WITH AVN KEEPING ERN HGHTS
HIGH...BUT POLLUTED BY WEAK UPPER TROF TRYING TO SLITHER THRU FLOW.

LA CORTE