Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
200 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 1996

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT IS FINALLY MAKING A RUN
TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  LOW CLOUDS AND COLD AIR HAS FINALLY BEEN
SCOURED OUT OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND SUNSHINE HAS BROKEN
OUT AT AOO ... JST AND UNV.  KCCX LOOP DURING THE PAST HOUR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO GENERATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  ACTUALLY...THERE SEEMS TO BE A LINE OF FAVORED
CONVECTION FROM BFD TO BVI.

SEVERAL THINGS HAPPENING TONIGHT IN A COMPLEX PATTERN.  FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...INCLUDING MOST OF THE CTP CWA... IF WE
CAN ESCAPE THE EVENING WITHOUT FIRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ON OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WE MAY BE OK FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE PRETTY UNSTABLE WITH LI/S DROPPING BELOW ZERO
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...LACK OF TRIGGER AND NIGHTTIME
STABILIZATION MAY KEEP THE AREA PC/MC WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

THE STORY IS DIFFERENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...WHERE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CLIP NW PA AND MORE THAN LIKELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER MCS.  CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR GOOD
RAIN AND EMBEDDED TRW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AGAIN TONIGHT.
WOULD ACTUALLY CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS
SEEING THEY RECEIVED OVER AN INCH LAST NIGHT.  AGAIN WILL BE A
TOUGH CALL WITH NO PCPN "RIGHT ON THE DOORSTEP".

IN ADDITION TO JUST THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER COUNTIES...AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT THIS TSTM COMPLEX
PUSHING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
PA AND TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL TSTMS.

FOR SATURDAY...FRONT TAKES AN AGONIZINGLY LONG TIME CROSSING THE
FA.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE DIGGING UPPER TROF/JET AND THE
STRONG SUGGESTION OF A SIGNIFICANT WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT.
850 AND ALOFT BECOME PARALLEL TO SURFACE FRONT ON SAT AS WELL.
THIS WOULD SPELL A RAINY SATURDAY.  IN S0OUTHEAST PA...FRONTAL
MOVEMENT MAY BE SLOW ENOUGH TO REFIRE POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

JUNG

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-110000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1230 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 1996

THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER IN KANSAS CITY SAYS THAT THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY

MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE.

SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED LATER TODAY.

JUNG

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-110200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
345 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 1996

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH EFFECTIVE
UNTIL 1000 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA:

WARREN... MCKEAN... POTTER... ELK... CAMERON... CLINTON... CLEARFIELD...
CENTRE... TIOGA... LYCOMING... SULLIVAN... UNION... SNYDER... NORTHUMBERLAND...
MONTOUR... AND COLUMBIA.

WARM HUMID AIR HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT WHICH MOVED NORTH INTO NEW YORK STATE EARLIER IN THE
DAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF
A DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD FROM OHIO.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON
THE ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER...AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

JUNG