Flash Flood Warning 211, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
315 AM EST SAT NOV 9 1996

...ZONE SUGGESTIONS/COORDINATION...
...PIT...SEEMS LIKE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THE RULE TODAY. THINK
ACCUM SNOW POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THO HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
PLACEMENT. LAURELS SEEM LIKELY...ELSEWHERE A HARD CALL.
...PHL...WUDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SW- EVEN OVER SRN ZONES
OVERNIGHT.

...QUICK POST MORTEM...
ANOTHER MAJOR RAIN STORM ADDS TO ALREADY RECORD SETTING RAINFALL
TOTALS FOR STATE COLLEGE. DAMAGE PATH FROM ERN CENTRE COUNTY THRU
NRN LYCOMING CTY WILL BE INVESTIGATED IN THE MORNING FOR POSSIBLE
LONG TRACK TORNADO. CONFIRMED TORNADO BEDFORD CTY. AS MUCH AS 7 IN
RAIN TIOGA COUNTY WITH SERIOUS FLOODING REPORTED. SEE LSRCTP FOR
ALL THE GORY DETAILS.

...DISCUSSION...
QUICK LOOK AT 06Z CHART SHOWS SFC FRONT EDGING THRU EXTREME ERN PA
TAKING R+ ALONG WITH IT. LIGHT ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER CTRL PA WITH
AOO ACTUALLY REPORTING S- FOR A TIME. NEXT QUESTION IS WHAT TO DO
WITH UPPER LOW AND MULTIPLE EMBEDDED MINOR VORTICES. UPPER TROF
WILL GO NOWHERE OVER NEXT 48HRS AND MODEL GRIDDED DETAILS HINT AT
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL INCHES OF DYNAMICALLY FORCED SNOW...VS LAKE
EFFECT...AFFECTING PARTS OF THE REGION.

SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP STILL BEING CRANKED OUT WELL BACK IN COLD
AIR...TESTAMENT TO UPSTREAM FORCING. ETA/MESO ETA SEEM TO BE HAVING
BETTER TIME RESOLVING THIS PRECIP WHICH WUD LEND MORE CREDENCE TO
THEIR DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT QPF'S MOVING INTO WRN PA LATER TODAY
INTO OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHARPEN UP AND
HGHTS FALL LOCALLY...VERY COLD AIR MOVES ALOFT WITH MODEL T-TOTALS
TOPPING 60. SFC ISOBARS TAKE ON INCREASING CYCLONIC CURVATURE WITH
TIME AS STRONG CURVATURE EFFECTS ALOFT OVERCOMING UNFAVORABLE JET
ORIENTATION...PROVIDING SOME MEASURE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH
HELPS SUPPORT LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS...ALBEIT WEAK. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT SET STAGE FOR POSSIBLE
SNOW SQUALL DEVELOPMENT UNDER UPPER LOW. WHERE TO DRAW LINES WILL
BE HARD AS QPF RATHER AMORPHOUS ON PROG...BUT FEEL MOST OF WRN PA
COULD SEE LIGHT ACCUMS THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW SPINS IN ON TOP
OF REGION ENHANCING INSTABILITY. DOESN'T LOOK LIKE CLASSIC LAKE
EFFECT SET UP AS FAR AS WIND SHEAR PROFILES GO BUT AIR-LAKE TEMP
DIFFERENCES SHUD BE CONSIDERABLE. COLD AIR IS HERE TO STAY A WHILE.
...LAKE SNOW OUTLOOK...
SAT 7AM - 7PM...Y
SAT 7PM - 7AM...Y...ADV TYPE SNOWS PO0SSIBLE...BUT DON'T FEEL IT
                    WILL BE CLASSIC LAKE EFFECT.
SUN 7AM - 7PM...Y...SAME AS ABOVE
LA CORTE

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1205 AM EDT SAT NOV 9 1996

TIME(EDT)  ...CITY LOCATION..........ST   ...EVENT/REMARKS
           ...COUNTY LOCATION........

0650 AM    BEDFORD                   PA   FLOOD
11/08/96   BEDFORD                        STREET AND BASEMENT
                                          FLOODING

0820 AM    WELLSBORO                 PA   FLOOD
11/08/96   TIOGA                          SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED

0830 AM    WOLFSBURG                 PA   TORNADO
11/08/96   BEDFORD                        CONFIRMED F1 9 HOMES
                                          DAMAGED TREES DOWN

0836 AM    NEW ENTERPRISE            PA   TORNADO
11/08/96   BEDFORD                        CONFIRMED F1
                                          DAMAGED 2 BARNS

0845 AM    BAKERS SUMMIT             PA   TORNADO
11/08/96   BEDFORD                        CONFIRMED F1
                                          BARN DAMAGED

0915 AM    SMITH TOWNSHIP            PA   WIND DAMAGE
11/08/96   BEDFORD                        WIRES DOWN ON RT 22

0925 AM    RAYSTOWN LAKE             PA   WIND DAMAGE
11/08/96   HUNTINGDON                     20 BOATS OVERTURNED
                                          AND SCT AT MARINA

0930 AM    WARRIORS MARK             PA   WIND DAMAGE
11/08/96   HUNTINGDON                     POWER POLES AND TREES
                                          DOWN SR 4025

0940 AM    STATE COLLEGE             PA   WIND DAMAGE
11/08/96   CENTRE                         GUST 55 MPH

1005 AM    BURNHAM                   PA   WIND DAMAGE
11/08/96   MIFFLIN                        ROOF OFF CARWASH
                                          POSSIBLE TORNADO

1030 AM    LINDEN                    PA   WIND DAMAGE
11/08/96   LYCOMING                       BRICK WALL OF CHURCH
                                          BLOWN OUT - TREES DOWN

1115 AM    SPRING                    PA   WIND DAMAGE
11/08/96   SNYDER                         TREES DOWN

0347 PM    WAKEFIELD                 PA   WIND DAMAGE
11/08/96   LANCASTER                      TREES DOWN.  ONE TREE
                                          ON HOUSE

1255 PM    BLAIN                     PA   WIND DAMAGE
11/08/96   PERRY                          POWERLINES AND TREES
                                          DOWN

1255 PM    SWATARA                   PA   WIND DAMAGE
11/08/96   LEBANON                        TREES DOWN