Flash Flood Warning 186, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 1996

ZONE SUGGESTIONS...
CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY...BASICALLY ALL OF CTP'S "PHL" ZONES.  FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS... CONTINUE FLOOD WATCHES FOR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND
EAST OF A BLAIR TO FRANKLIN COUNTY LINE IN THE SOUTH.  DO NOT
ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAIN MOVING BACK INTO LAUREL HIGHLANDS...OR
BEDFORD/FULTON COUNTIES.  NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS A TOUGH CALL.
GIVEN NEW 94Q AND 94E...MAY BE INCLINED TO THROW ELK CAMERON AND
POTTER COS INTO WATCH AS WELL.  IFLOWS GAGES IN ELK INDICATE 1.5
TO 2 INCHES IN 12 HOURS.

LIMITED GRIDDED DATA TO LOOK AT THIS MORNING...SO WILL HAVE TO DO
WITH WHAT IS AVAILABLE.

KCCX SHOWS BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUING FROM CLINTON COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRE
COUNTY AND INTO MIFFLIN COUNTY.  THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME BRIGHT
BAND CONTAMINATION OCCURRING IN THIS AREA...WITH FREEZING/MELTING
LEVELS DROPPING.  CHANGEOVER TO RAIN SNOW MIX WAS NOTED AT JST A
FEW HOURS EARLIER...AND RAIN HAS MIXED WITH SNOW AT AOO.  850
ZERO LINE ON THE NGM CLEARLY DEPICTS THIS TRANSITION AREA WELL.
A SPOTTER REPORT INDICATES SOME SLUSHY 1/2 INCH AMOUNTS IN SOME
OF THE HILLS AROUND AOO AND JST.

MODELS TODAY PAINT YET ANOTHER OMINOUS PICTURE.  LOOKS LIKE ALL
MODELS PRETTY MUCH CONVERGE AT CUTTING OFF UPPER LOW OVER VA...
THEN SLOWLY MOVING THIS FEATURE OUT TO SEA.  THE RESULTING
SURFACE LOW AND STRONG ATLANTIC FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.  INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CURRENT TREND OF PCPN
WILL CONTINUE...THAT IS A SLOW CUTOFF FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST...AS RAINS PICK UP OVER MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
OVERALL PCPN PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A W-E ORIENTATION ACROSS NJ
INTO CENTRAL PA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEVELOPING 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
COMING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS NJ INTO EASTERN PA THIS
AFTERNOON.  MODELS HINT THAT THE BEST UVV/S WILL BE ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CTP CWA AND EAST.  DO NOT REALLY
SEE A GOOD REASON HOWEVER TO THINK THAT PCPN WILL JUST STOP IN
EASTERN PA.N  THINK BAND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL CONTINUE
INTO CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON...MORE IN LINE WITH THE "HEAVIER"
DELINEATION OF THE 94E DISCUSSION.

JUNG