Flash Flood Warning 133, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
240 AM EDT THU AUG 15 1996

...ZONE SUGGESTIONS...
...PIT...ALREADY COORD...THANKS
...PHL...NO SIG CHANGES TO SUGGEST EXCEPT MAYBE "HUMID" LOWER SUSQ
TODAY

...DISCUSSION...
WELL THUNDER DID END FORMING LATER YESTERDAY...THOUGH NOT WHERE I
EXPECTED. WEAK LOW LEVEL EAST-WEST BOUNDARY SEEMED TO NOT PLAY A
ROLE...RATHER OROGENIC FORCING SEEMED TO RULE WITH ACTIVITY POPPING
IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE....PERPENDICULAR TO SFC FRONT. GO
FIGURE.

WIDELY SCATTERED DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN PULLING AN EVER-READY BUNNY
ACT...BUT FINALLY SEEM TO BE SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN SPOTS SHUD GIVE UP THE GHOST AND PAVE WAY
FOR MORE ACTION DURING THE DAY TODAY...AGAIN LIKELY TO BE MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TYPES AS BEST DYNAMICS STILL LAG TO WEST THRU
LATE DAY.

WHILE FRONT REALLY GOT COOKING OVER UPPER GR LAKES TODAY AND THAT
OFTEN PORTENDS DOOM DOWNSTREAM OVER LOCAL AREA NEXT DAY...I SEE
LITTLE TO GET REAL EXCITED ABOUT FOR TODAY. UPPER WINDS WILL BE
GETTING STRONGER SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FIRE SHOULD NOT MEANDER
ABOUT LIKE IT DID TODAY. NEW MODELS INDICATE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WELL WEST OF REGION EVEN OUT THRU 00Z. LOW LEVEL JET IS JUST
ENTERING WESTERN PA LATE EVENING. PRECIP WATERS AND THETA-E PROGS
ARE NOT TERRIBLY WET OR WARM. VERTICAL THETA-E DIFFERENCES ONLY IN
MID/UPPER TEENS WHICH DOESN'T BODE WELL FOR SEVERE. 850-500MB LAPSE
RATES DO COME UP TO FAVORABLE VALUES ACCORDING TO GRIDDS BUT WIND
DIR SHEAR MINIMAL. WHILE T-TOTALS AND K INDICES MOVE TO VALUES
NECESSARY FOR THUNDER...MODELS SLIDING VORTICITY MINIMA ACROSS
REGION THRU MUCH OF DAYLIGHT HOURS. ABOUT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE
FEATURE TO LATCH ONTO IS JET STREAK SLIDING UP EAST SIDE OF SHORT
WAVE INTO ERN CANADA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THIS JET STREAK
SLIDES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND ALL MODELS DEVELOP SOME MEASURE OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOC WITH THIS. SO WOULD EXPECT RW/TRW TO FIRE IN
THETA-E RIDGE AND THEN BE AIDED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

FRONT SEEMS TO WEAKEN IN TIME BUT MODELS STILL SHOW SOME SORT OF
TROF MOVING THRU FRIDAY WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE INDICATED. THINK
CHC POPS WUD BE GOOD AGAIN FRI AS LOW LEVEL  AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES BEGIN MOVING THRU.

LA CORTE