Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
830 PM EST FRI NOV 8 1996

THE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL BY THE BUCKETFULS IN NORTHERN NY.  WE
ARE GETTING CONCERNED SINCE SFC WAVE STILL DOWN IN NERN PA WITH
UPR FLOW BACKING.  THIS MEANS THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE OVER NRN NY
WILL PIVOT SLOWLY BUT REALLY GO NOWHERE UNTIL THE STRONGEST
FRONTAL WAVE GETS NORTH OF OUR AREA.  THIS IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED
UNTIL 12Z...LEAVING SOLID MODERATE RAIN SHIELD IN PLACE ALL NIGHT
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN
IN THE LAST 12 HOURS AND ANOTHER 2+ INCHES NOW QUITE LIKELY
BEFORE 12Z.  THE GRADIENT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS JUST ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN IS AMAZING...WITH 1/3 INCH HERE AT BTV AND OVER 4
INCHES 15 MILES AWAY ON THE NY SHORE.

IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE ERN HALF OF VT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE
RAIN TONIGHT...AND THEN WHEN THE SFC WAVE GETS NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER SAT MORNING AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINS TO DIMINISH
AND SWEEP THE PRECIP BAND EASTWARD...ONLY A QUICK COUPLE HOURS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AROUND NOONTIME SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...WITH
FLOOD WATCH ALREADY IN PLACE...PROBABLY WOULD LEAVE IT THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR ALL OF VERMONT.

SFC DWPTS NOT* TOO LOW IN ONTARIO YET SO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
WILL NOT BE TOO QUICK SAT...EVEN IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY AND
ADIRONDACKS ON SAT.  BUT...IT MUST CHANGE FOR SAT NGT MOST AREAS.

BELL