Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION BINGHAMTON NY
100 PM EDT TUE APR 16 1996

THERE/S A STEVIE RAY VAUGHN SONG THAT GOES "WALKING THE TIGHTROPE EVERY
DAY AND EVERY NIGHT". THAT APTLY DESCRIBES THE SITUATION WE/VE BEEN IN
CONCERNING THE ISSUANCE OF FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THIS AND THE PREVIOUS
EVENT. SO FAR WE/VE MANAGED TO DODGE THE BULLET BUT R+ NOW OCCURING
FROM XTRM NE PA INTO THE WRN CATSKILLS. MAX PCPN AMTS SO FAR IN THE .75
TO .90 RANGE...THE WSR-88D IS ONCE AGAIN UNDERESTIMATING AMTS.

WE MAY JUST LUCK OUT. SAT PIX SHOW A SPLIT WITH THE BEST ENHANCEMENTS
TO OUR NW AND SE. MDLS ARE TARGETING THE SE CWA WITH THE BEST FLOOD
POTNL AND LOOKS LIKE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SULLIVAN/PIKE/DELAWARE/WAYNE.
850 THETA-E ADVECTION GOES NEG BY 12Z ACRS WRN ZONES AND 12Z ISEN PROGS
ALSO INDICATE SOME DOWNGLIDING HERE AS WELL. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE
THAT THE STEADIEST PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF ACRS THE WRN ZONES THIS
MRNG. ACRS THE ERN ZONES THE STEADY RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY
EARLY AFTN. WILL ADD THE MENTION OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE WRN
ZONES LATE THIS AFTN BASED ON 850 TEMP AND LAYERED THICKNESS PROGS.

CONCERNING THE WATCHES...OBVIOUSLY WE NEED TO KEEP THEM UP FOR THE ERN
ZONES. ACRS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN TIER THE RAINFALL AMTS HAVE
BEEN MUCH LESS. ALTHO I WOULD NOT OBJECT TO DROPPING THE WATCH HERE IN
THE MRNG PCKG I/D RATHER KEEP'EM UP UNTIL THE FRONT GETS BY.

FOR TNGT WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS. TNGT/S 850 ANYLS
SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW LVL MSTR WITH THE UPR LVL LOW AND THIS WILL HANG
ARND FOR A WHILE...WELL DEPICTED IN THE T-H XSXNS. ON WED THE FWC CLOUD
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE/LL BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTN BUT WE/VE PLAYED THAT
GAME BEFORE. WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE CHC FOR A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER. AT LEAST THE 6-10 MRF SUGGESTS A GLIMMER OF HOPE THAT WE
WILL SEE SOME DECENT SPRINGTIME WX.

I/LL GET THE ZONES OUT BY 115 OR SO AND FOLLOW THEM UP WITH COtORD
CALLS. HAVE A GOOD MORNING.

.BGM...FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA.

BRADY