Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...CORRECTED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
240 AM EDT MON AUG 19 1996

TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN W/ UPCOMING FCST PERIOD...1) ASSESSMENT OF
PCPN CHCS TDAY AND TONIGHT AND 2) POSSIBILITY OF SVR WX ON TUES. MODELS
FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ETA (ONCE AGAIN) TENDING TO
OVER AMPLIFY MIDWEST VORT MAX...AS MENTIONED BY DTX THE OTHER NIGHT A
PRODUCT OF ITS BETTER RESOLUTION/SENSITIVITY TO CONVECTION. BOTTOM LINE
IS THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT TREKS UP THE BACKSIDE OF
RIDGE. NEVERTHELESS...SOME UPR TROUGHING WILL START TO BE NOTICED ACRS
FA...ESP WRN SECTIONS...STARTING TODAY WITH ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE.
THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID LVL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME
DYNAMICAL FORCING AND THUS CHC/S OF -TSRA/-SHRA. STILL THINK ALONG THE
LINES OF ONGOING FCST WITH MAIN THREAT FOR PCPN DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS IN WRN LWR ZONES...WHILE ERN LWR/UPR MI ARE A BIT MORE INTO THE
UPR RIDGING/DRY AIR.

AS FOR TSTM POTNTL FOR NW LWR...INSAB TODAY WILL BE MAINLY LOW LVL...
NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IF ANY COOLING ALOFT. THEREFORE...FEEL CHC TSTM
POPS ARE CERTAINLY JUSTIFIED IN THESE AREAS W/ DIURNAL HEATING...
INCREASING SFC DWPTS/THTE...AND LIFT MECHANISM (CAP BUSTER) WITH
APPRCHNG SHORTWAVE.

REST OF CWA GETS INTO CHCS OF TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL
JUICE IN PLACE AND WK SHRTWAVE/TROUGHING IN UPR HEIGHT FIELDS OVER
AREA.

ATTM...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A LEGIT CHC FOR SVR WX ACRS CWA TUESDAY.
MOST OF THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS WILL BE THERE...LOW LVL FORCING W/
TROUGH/FNT MOVING THROUGH...WARM/HUMID AIR MASS IN BNDRY LAYER...
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT (SEEN W/ H5 PROGS)...DRY AIR INTRUSION IN MID LVLS
(AS SEEN W/ H7 PROGS). GRIDDED DATA ALSO SHOWS A REAL GOOD LAPSE RATE
OF THTE ON TUES. ONLY THING LACKING WILL PROB BE REAL GOOD SPEED SHEAR.
NEVERTHELESS...PROGGED TIMING OF FNTL PASSAGE DURING THE AFT HOURS ACRS
CWA COULD MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING EVENT.

HURLEY,