Tornado Warning 3, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
237 PM CDT THU MAY 9 1996

WINDSHIFT LINE HAS ALL BUT LOST ITS PUNCH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THE WIND ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES IS ALREADY
BECOMING SOUTH.  DRYLINE IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
NOW.  WE THINK THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT BETWEEN THE DRYLINE AND THE WINDSHIFT LINE.  MODIFIED
CHILDRESS SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE CAP HAS WEAKENED
TO 2.2 DEGREES GIVEN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.  WE WILL ALSO ADD THE
WORDS "POSSIBLY SEVERE" TO THE FORECAST AS WELL...SINCE ANY STORMS
THAT GO UP WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LIFT TO WORK WITH.

LATER ON TONIGHT...ARIZONA SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES AND
LLJ SETS UP AHEAD OF IT.  STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLE FROM THE NORTH.  DRYLINE WILL SLOSH BACK TO THE WEST.
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TONIGHT AS LLJ ENHANCES
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE HELPS UPSTAIRS WITH
THE DIVERGENCE AND THE SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

THE NGM MODEL BRINGS THE SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE FASTEST...WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT PICTURES FROM OUTER SPACE.  WITH THIS
WAVE MOVING ACROSS SO FAST WE THINK THAT THERE MAY BE SOME MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST...BUT THE DYNAMICS
WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SKIES
ON FRIDAY MAY BE MAINLY SUNNY...BEFORE LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE IN
THE DAY FROM THE NORTH.  WE WILL STILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE QUITE COOLER THAN TODAY.

AFTER THE POSSIBLE RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WE SHOULD STAY
RAIN FREE UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
IN A NORTHWEST FLtOW ALOFT.

THANK YOU FOR THE COORDINATION DDC AND ABQ.

A LOOK AT SOME EARLY NUMBERS:

DHT 60/77 49/80 54 100
AMA 62/81 52/77 54 200
BVR 64/75 54/72 53 320

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

GOEHRING

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-100400-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT THU MAY 9 1996

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE PANHANDLES.

THE AREA AT RISK IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO ALLISON.
BEAVER...PERRYTON...LIPSCOMB...AND CANADIAN ARE A FEW OF THE CITIES
INCLUDED IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE AREA...BUT THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAD MOVED THROUGH THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THROUGH ALL BUT THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PARTS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS ON THE FRONT EAST OF AMARILLO...WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM IT INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  THE
FRONT AND THE DRYLINE WILL BE FAVORED AREAS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

DUE TO THE INSTABILITY OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE RISK
AREA...ONCE CONVECTION BEGINS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT...AND BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

COCKRELL