Tornado Warning 10, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
305 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 1996

SATELLITE LOOP AS OF 19Z SHOWED UPR LOW ROTATING OVER NWRN AZ/SERN
NV. UPR LOW PROGGED TO LIFT OUT NEXT 48 HRS...TO OVER NERN CO BY 12Z
MON IN RESPONSE TO NEXT UPSTREAM TROF HEADING TOWARD NWRN U.S..
NRLY STNRY SFC FRONT HAS NOT BUDGED TODAY AND EXTENDS FROM W-CNTRL KS
ACROSS THE ERN OK PNHNDL...TO N OF AMA...THEN BACK THRU NERN NM.
EXPECTING SFC LOW TO DEVELOP OVER SERN PLAINS OF NM/SWRN TX PNHNDL
THIS EVE. MODELS DIVERGE ON SFC FEATURES AFTER 00Z SUN. WL FOLLOW ETA
SFC PATTERN AS NGM/AVN DEPICT FRONTAL BNDRY LIFTING NWD OUT OF
PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND BEGIN LOWERING SFC PRES IN ERN CO...PSBLY TOO
QUICKLY. REF PMDSPD. WL BANK ON FRONT STAYING OVER NRN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT.

INITIAL VORT LOBE WL SWING ACROSS PANHANDLES TONIGHT. STRONG 850 MB
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION/UPSLOPE FLOW WL COMBINE WITH THIS VORT LOBE TO
INDUCE A SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF STG TO SVR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THIS EVE AND TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLY AM
DISCUSSION...EXCELLENT UPR LVL DIFFLUENCE...H500 - H300 LYR...ALONG
WITH DIFFLUENT THICKNESS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS.
PRECIP WATER VALUES WL RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH HIGHEST VALUES
IN THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. PLANNING ON KEEPING CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGES ATTM.

UPR LVL SPEED MAX OF 90 TO 100 KT...ALONG WITH STRONG H500 VORT MAX
EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS PANHANDLES SUNDAY. H700 FLOW BECOMES MORE
WRLY SUN...THUS EXPECTING PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE TO MOVE INTO EXTREME
ERN PANHANDLES/WRN OK BY SUN EVE. HOWEVER WL LIKELY HAVE ONGOING
CONVECTION SUN AM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE
ERN ZONES SUNDAY PM/EVE...DRYING THE WRN/CNTRL ZONES OUT WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF DRY SLOTTING. WL PROBABLY REMOVE SLT CHC POPS FROM
SERN ZONES MON...WL KEEP IN NE.

FOR THE EXTENDED PD...1ST UPR LOW LIFTS OUT INTO MS VLY TUES...WHILE
2ND UPR LOW FORMS OVER THE NWRN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT
LOW...H500 HGTS RISE ACCORDINGLY OVER THE SRN HI PLAINS INTO MID
WEEK. WL KEEP EXTENDED DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS.

WL ISSUE AN UPDATED FFS WITH THIS SCHEDULED ISSUANCE.

PRELIM NUMBERS
DHT 056/079/052/080 63-
AMA 058/078/053/081 63-

.AMA...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ZONES 3>5 AND 8>10.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ZONES 2-3.

CARUSO

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-260545-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 1996

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

THE DRYLINE...OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT.  GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ALL
OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS
WHICH PREVIOUSLY RECEIVED CONSIDERABLE RAIN MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH
FLOODING.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PAfNHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

COPLEY