Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
310 PM CDT MON JUN 24 1996

CONVECTION FIRING ACRS THE TX/OK PNHDLS ATTM.  DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MOST AREAS WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 90S.  THE
MODIFIED AMA 12Z SOUNDING WITH THESE FIGURES INDICATES A CAPE
AROUND 3500 J/KG...SO AMS IS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE.  EXPECT TSTMS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BUT BELIEVE ACTIVITY SHOULD END BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AS AMS STABILIZES AND SINCE NO SHRTWV ENERGY EXPECTED
AFT THAT POINT.  PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT IS ABOUT 1 INCH...
WHICH IS NOT REALLY HIGH.  HWVR...FLO ALOFT IS WEAK SO SLOW
STORMS MOVEMENT COULD RESULT IN ISOL HEAVY RAINFALL.  WILL NOT
MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN ZONE FCST AT THIS POINT SINCE IT SHOULD BE
ISOL.  WILL USE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THIS INSTEAD.

HEIGHTS WILL CONT RISE OVR THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HWVR...LO LVL FLO REMAINS S TO SE AND SHOULD SUSTAIN DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S AND 60S.  WITH DAYTIME HEAT...AMS WILL AGAIN BECOME
UNSTABLE TUE AND WED AFTN AND EVES.  THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THO
WILL BE INCRG CAP STRENGTH AND ANY SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BLDG RDG.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL ONLY FCST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.

NGM H8 FCSTD TEMPS COOLER THAN ETA AND AVN.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE COOLER NGM-MOS.  UNLESS SGFNT CLOUD COVER DVLPS EARLY ENUF IN
THE DAY ON TUE AND WED...BLV PERSISTENCE WILL PREVAIL AND THE
WARMER AVN GUIDANCE WILL VERIFY BETTER.

THANKS LBB/OUN/DDC FOR THE COORDINATION.

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

SP

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