Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 1996

ISOLATED TCU AND CB/S NOW POPPING OVER NERN PLAINS OF NM AND THE
NWRN PANHANDLES. AS OF 19Z...WK SFC TROF EXTENDED FROM WRN
KS...ACROSS THE NWRN PANHANDLES...INTO NERN NM. A 2ND TROF WAS
POSITIONED FROM W-CNTRL KS ACROSS WRN OK. SFC DWPTS HAVE COME DOWN
INTO THE 30S/40S NW OF THE TROF OVER THE NWRN PANHANDLES...BUT
REMAIN IN THE 50S/60S ELSEWHERE. NO CURRENT SATELLITE DATA TO WORK
WITH...BUT 12Z RUNS WERE PRETTY CONSISTENT BRINGING A WEAK IMPULSE
OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS EVE. IN ADDITION...60-65 KT 250 MB JET
STREAK WL PASS OVER THE SRN TX PNHNDL TONIGHT...PSBLY PROVIDING
LIFT IN ITS LEFT EXIT REGION. LATEST ADAP CHARTS INDICATE A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE PANHANDLES WITH LI/S RANGING
FROM -6 TO -9 WITH THE LATTER VALUES IN THE SERN SECTIONS.
WITH INVERTED V PROFILE TO AMA SOUNDING THIS PM/EVE...AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO COULD HAVE DMG WIND GUSTS/PSBLY HAIL WITH WBZ ARND
9700 FT. PLANNING ON KEEPING CURRENT POP CONFIGURATION FOR
TONIGHT. WITH HIGHER SFC DWPTS IN THE ERN PANHANDLES...30 POPS MAY
NOT BE OVERDONE.

HEAT FROM THE NRN MEX H500 RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
SRN HI PLAINS INTO THURS...WITH MID LVL TEMPS ON THE RISE. W-SW
H700-H500 LYR FLOW FAVORS DRIER CONDITIONS. WE/RE EXPECTING A
RATHER FORMIDABLE CAP IN PLACE WED THRU FRI. THE EXCEPTION COULD
BE THE NWRN PANHANDLES WHERE ISOLATED TRW FIRING OVER THE NM
MTS...COULD SURVIVE INTO THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A
CONTINUATION OF WK VORT MAXIMA TOPPING THE RIDGE AND BRUSHING THIS
RGN. WL RETAIN SLT CHC LATE PM TRW ERN ZONES WED...NR EXPECTED
LOCATION OF SFC TROF AND WL PULL POPS ELSEWHERE. FORTHCOMING
SHIFT/S/ WL NEED TO CONSIDER DROPPING SLT CHC POPS WHICH ARE
BROADBRUSHED ACROSS THE FCST AREA INTO SAT OR ATLEAST FINE-TUNING
THEM SOMEWHAT. THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS THRU ATLEAST FRIDAY
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WL BE HOT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR DAYS AND FAIR
NIGHTS. COULD SEE LESS HEAT SUN AS 500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD OF
THE SRN HI PLAINS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
DHT 065/099/065 211
AMA 065/100/066 201

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

CARUSO

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-182130-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 1996

THERE IS A RISK THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.  UNDER SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 90S TODAY.  THERMAL LIFT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO TODAY.  WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT A FEW OF THESE MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH=.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

COPLEY