Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
250 PM CDT WED MAY 8 1996

A DRY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.  SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 42 HOURS AND
SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR BY FRIDAY MORNING.  UP UNTIL THEN...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT
ONCE AGAIN WE WILL BE TOO CAPPED TO SET OFF ANYTHING.  TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR ON THURSDAY...PROBABLY CLOSE TO TODAY/S
READINGS.  DRYLINE WILL SLOSH BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND LLJ
WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

NOW ABOUT THE FRONT...THE FRONT COULD SNEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AT THAT TIME.  THERE IS A LOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THESE STRONG FRONTS USUALLY MAKE IT SOUTH FASTER THAN THE
MODELS INDICATE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY ON FRIDAY...DEPENDING
ON THE CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT
BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.  RIGHT NOW WE WILL PLACE THE FRONT IN THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WE WILL GO WITH THE
WARMER AVN GUIDANCE NUMBERS AS LOW CLOUDS MAY LAG TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.

WE WILL PLACE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES ON FRIDAY AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE BEST LIFT AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.  THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM BACK FARTHER
WEST...BUT WE DO NOT THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN UNTIL SATURDAY AFTER THE
UPSLOPE FLOW GETS WELL ESTABLISHED.

IN THE EXTENDED WE WILL BLANKET THE ENTIRE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND LEAVE MONDAY DRY.  WE
SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  BY MONDAY THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND IT SHOULD
CUT OFF OUR CHANCES OF RAIN.

THANK YOU FOR THE COORDINATION DDC.

A LOOK AT SOME EARLY NUMBERS:

DHT 64/95 58/75 53 000
AMA 65/96 63/83 55 000
BVR 67/98 64/78 53 000

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

GOEHRING

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 PM CDT WED MAY 8 1996

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

542 PM\     11 S LIPSCOMB             TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/08/96   LIPSCOMB                       REPORTED BY LIPSCOMB
                                          SHERIFFS OFFICE