Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 1996

COMPLICATED UPR LVL PATTERN TO CONTINUE NEXT 48HRS AS MODELS HAVING
DIFFICULT TIME TRANSITIONING FRM RIDGING IN E TO RIDGING IN W.
WHAT'S LEFT IN THE MIDDLE IS OUR FA AND THE NWD MOVING SHRTWV AT THE
MOMENT. AND OF COURSE WE CAN'T IGNORE BROAD MOIST PLUME WITH
TROPICAL CONNECTIONS ARCHING FRM SW MEXICO INTO WRN KS. AT THE
SFC...WEAK FNTL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACRS SRN TX PNHDL...
APPARENTLY THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY AS SEEN ON 88-D LOOP FRM GAG TO
CVS.

SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION ACRS OK PNHDL BETTER ORGANIZED...BEING
ENHANCED BY APCHG SHRTWV. SLOW STORM MOTIONS CONTINUE THREAT FOR
ISOLD FLOODING. WILL NOT ISSUE FFA ATTM BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH OK
PNHDL OVERNIGHT AS EVENT UNFOLDS. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL WORDING WITH
SCT COVERAGE OVERNIGHT FOR ALL OF FA. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR SOME
DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HOWEVER WITH
TROPICAL AMS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST VCNTY SHEAR AXIS ACRS FAR NRN
ZONES.

ONTO MON...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS THROUGHOUT FA DURING THE DAY AS
COLD POOL ASSCD WITH NEARLY STATIONARY SHRTWV ENHANCES LAPSE RATES.
OLD FNTL BOUNDARY ALSO MAY BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS IT MEANDERS
NWRD. WILL TAPER POPS OFF IN NW MON PM AS SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO TAKE
OVER AS UPR RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

ON TUE...SOMEWHAT OF NW FLOW SETTING UP SO WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC/CHC
POPS FROM W-E. STILL NO CLEAR-CUT FOCUS HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR TRW ESPECIALLY ACRS HIER TERRAIN TO W.

IN EXTENDED...GUIDANCE FROM NCEP SAYS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE CUT
OFF WITH TIME AS RIDGE BUILDS IN W AND THUS DRY AND WARMER EXTENDED.
HOWEVER ECMF SHOWS RIDGE BEING IMPACTED ON SE SIDE BY ERLY WV SO
WILL KEEP POPS THROUGH THE FOURTH.

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

COBB

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-010600-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 1996

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR A
GAGE TO CLOVIS LINE.  A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AROUND MIDLAND IS FORECASTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATER
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.  A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.  THESE
FACTORS...ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...WILL COMBINE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

THE STEERING WIND CURRENTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE ARE VERY
LIGHT...THEREFORE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SLOW-
MOVING.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW-LYING
AREAS.  HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCHNEIDER