Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CDT WED APR 19 1995

SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DVLP ACROS SRN TX PH.  WARM FRONT XTDS E OF
LOW ACROSS NRN TX WITH 60 TO 70 DEGREE DWPTS S FRONT ACROSS E HLF
OF TX.  WITH BEST PRES FALLS NOW INDCTD OVR CNTRL OK...LOW SHD
TRCK NE INTO CNTRL OK DURING THE NIGHT WITH DRYLINE XTDG S OF
LOW.  WDSPRD CONVECTION HAS DVLPD ACROSS NE TX INTO SRN OK DURING
THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE FRONT... AND THIS SHD CONT TO DVLP AND
SPREAD NE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK AND NW ARK THIS EVENING AS WARM
FNT TO S LIFTS NWD.  AM EXPECTING WARM FRONT TO TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH NWD.
ETA CAPES PROGGED TO BE IN THE 1000 TO 1400 J/KG RANGE.  IN
ADDITION STRONG HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 300 UNITS ARE PROGGED TO
DVLP ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY N OF WM FRONT.  WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 100 KTS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OK DURING THE NIGHT...COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND
HELICITY WD XPCT ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR WX TO DVLP TONIGHT OUT OF
TX INTO E OK.  THIS WL OCCUR ESPCLY OVR SE OK WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY WL BE LOCATED.

AS CONSIDERABLY DRYER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND DRYLINE...
SKIES WL CLEAR WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TWD MORNING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING OVR NW ARKANSAS BEFORE 9AM.

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LINGERS ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH VORT MAXES PROPOGATING
ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.  HOWEVER... WITH VERY DRY
AIR AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WOULD XPCT SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.

/16

TUL 053/077 048/072 045 7000
FSM 055/078 048/074 048 8200
MLC 055/078 049/074 049 8000
BVO 050/076 048/070 XXX 7000
FYV 054/078 049/072 XXX 8300
IDB 059/080 050/078 XXX 8000
4M1 054/077 047/071 XXX 8000

.TUL...NONE.