Severe Thunderstorm Warning 445, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 PM CST FRI NOV 10 1995

MAIN FCST CONCERN INVOLVES WX THIS AFTN THRU TNGT. CDFNT CRNTLY MVG
ACRS NW ZNS AND HAS PASSED THE TUL METRO DURG THE PAST HR. 88D HAS
BEEN SHOWING THIS BNDRY WELL AND ALSO INDICATES THERE IS A WAVE
ALNG THE FNT NR TUL. SHARP TEMP GRAD BEHIND FNT AS SEEN IN MESONET
OBS. JUST ACRS OSAGE CNTY THERE IS A 30 DEG TEMP DROP. SAT LOOPS
SHOW THAT LO CLDS HV BEEN LAGGING THE FNT BUT SHLD MV INTO FA LATER
THIS EVE.

TRW HV DVLPD IN SW MO AND ARE STARTING TO BUILD SWWD ALNG FNT INTO
NE OK. ADAP SHOWING GOOD MOIST CONV AND INSTABILITY FM SW MO INTO
SE OK AND WT1057 HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF FA S AND E OF
TUL VCNTY.

XPCT FNT TO CONT TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS AND EXIT CWA BY ARND 04Z AND
ALL OF FA BY 06Z. SO WL LIMIT MENTION OF TRW TO THIS EVE XCPT FOR
ZN77. LGT PRECIP HAS BEEN OCCURING ACRS SRN NE AND KS DURG THE DAY.
AM NOT THAT EXCITED ABT CHC FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP IN FA BUT WL
MENTION DRIZZLE AND ALSO FLURRIES ACRS NRN ZNS. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
THIS SHLD BE MUCH AND WL END AS LO CLDS DCRS ACRS FA FROM W TO E
BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. STRNG GUSTS OCCURING BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
FNT. WAS ORIGINALLY GOING TO KEEP CAUTION ON LAKES THRU THE EVE.
BUT LOOKING AT GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH N OF FNT HV DECIDED TO PUT UP WND
ADVSY FOR NW PTN OF FA. WL LET LATER SHIFT MAKE ADJS AS FNT MVS
THRU AND GRAD GRADUALLY RELAXES.

SKIES SHLD BE MAINLY CLR BY SUNRISE ON SAT AND THEN IT APRS THAT WX
WL BE QUIET THRU THE WEEKEND. MAIN QUESTION WL BE TEMPS. LOOKING AT
TEMPS UPSTREAM FROM ERN OK IT LOOKS LIKE MOS IS MUCH TOO WARM AND
WL LOWER MINS QUITE A BIT. FWC SEEMS FAIRLY REASONABLE FOR SAT BUT
HV RAISED MINS A BIT IN ERN OK ON SAT NGT AS S WNDS SHLD INCRS DURG
THE NGT. MAIN PROB THEN IS HOW MUCH TEMPS WL FALL BFR WNDS PICK UP.
BY SUN THERE SHLD BE A GOOD WARM UP AND IT APRS THAT MOS IS AGAIN
A BIT LO.

PRELIM NMBRS
TUL 26/50 38/64 2000     FSM 38/50 27/65 5000
MLC 35/54 34/66 2000     BVO 25/50 36/64 2000
FYV 29/48 30/61 5000     IDB 43/55 28/64 5000
BYV 29/47 28/59 5000

07

.TUL...
.OK...WND ADVSY THIS EVE ZNS54>57/59>61/64>66
      CAUTION ON AREA LAKES THIS EVE ZNS 58/62/63/67>76.
.AR...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES THIS EVE ZNS 1/2/10/11/19/29.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-111200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
110 PM CST FRI NOV 10 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM VINITA TO WAGONER
TO 20 MILES WEST OF MCALESTER. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP TO
THE WEST OF THIS LINE BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN OSAGE COUNTY AT
1 PM. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE 9 PM THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED TO AROUND 80 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. DRIER AIR HAS
PUSHED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE TULSA AREA AND ALTHOUGH STORMS
MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THIS AIRMASS...THE STORMS WILL NOT BECOME SEVERE
UNTIL THEY REACH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN KANSAS BETWEEN CHANUTE AND JOPLIN AT
1 PM. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW STORMS
TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE OF STORMS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE RISK
AREA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.