Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 1995

CAP STILL HOLDING ACROSS FA THIS AFTN...BUT LEADING EDGE OF COLD
AIR ALOFT SHUD BEGIN TO SPILL INTO E OK WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO.
PROFILER DATA AND MESONET INDICATING VEERING FLOW AHEAD OF DRYLINE
SO LARGE HAIL LIKELY MAIN THREAT IN W PART OF FA. ETA HELICITY
PROGS TARGET BEST CHC FOR ROTATING STRMS IN E PART OF FA. WL HV
HIGHEST POPS IN E SINCE STRMS MAY FIRE B4 00Z ACROSS W PART OF
AREA. WL GEN STAY WELL ABV MOS POPS FOR TONIGHT. WL HV CAUTION ON
LAKES ACROSS NE OK/NW AR ZNS THIS EVENING.

ETA MAINTAINS GUD CAPES IN E ZNS SO WL CONT CHC POPS IN EAST ZNS
ON WED WITH SLGHT CHC IN W WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY DIURNAL. FNTL BDRY
TO SHIFT E OF AREA BY WED WITH UPR RDG BUILDING W OF AREA BY LATE
IN THE WEEK.

TUL 068/091 069/090 068 421-
FSM 071/090 069/091 067 4431
MLC 070/091 070/091 068 3421
BVO 069/090 067/091 XXX 42`1-
FYV 068/088 067/090 XXX 6431
IDB 071/091 069/090 XXX 3331
BYV 070/089 067/088 XXX 6431

...10...

.TUL...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES THIS EVENING OK ZONES 54>71
                                          AR ZONES 1/2/10/11.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-051200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL KANSAS HAS BROUGHT
STRONG SOUTH WINDS TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THESE SOUTH WINDS HAVE BROUGH VERY MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR
TO THE AREA.  THESE STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND THE WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE
A VERTICAL WIND PROFILE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE TORNADOES IN ADDITION
TO THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE QUESTION IS WHEN AND IF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM SO THEY CAN
BECOME SEVERE.  A WARM LAYER OF AIR CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE AREA
AND IS ACTING AS A LID ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  AN UPPER
ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AT MIDDAY WILL LIKELY HELP BREAK THE LID AS IT APPROACHES
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AT
MIDDAY WILL SHIFT EAST.  THE CONVERGENCE OF WIND ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.

THIS UPPER AND SURFACE SUPPORT IN COMBINATION WITH THE WIND FIELDS
AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR WARRANT A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PEOPLE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY SHOULD
ALSO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS LAT>ER IN THE DAY. REVIEW SEVERE STORM SAFETY RULES BEFORE
HEADING OUT FOR THE DAY. STAY ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS
AND HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION IN CASE THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-051200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
430 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 1993

...UPDATE FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS...

A THUNDERSTORM HAS RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST CREEK
COUNTY BETWEEN BRISTOW AND SLICK.  THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 TO 30 MPH AND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHERN TULSA COUNTY AND
POSSIBLY NORTHERN OKMULGEE COUNTY BETWEEN 5 AND 630 PM.  WITH
EXTREME INSTABILITY AND A MODERATELY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE THIS
STORM MAY BECOME A SUPERCELL WITH THE THREAT OF EXTREMELY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND SPOTTER GROUPS IN CREEK...TULSA
AND OKMUfLGEE COUNTIES SHOULD IMMEDIATELY DEPLOY SPOTTERS ON THIS
STORM.

PERSONS IN EASTERN CREEK...SOUTHERN TULSA AND NORTHER OKMULGEE
COUNTY SHOULD BE READY TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY AND MONITOR THE
SITUATION CLOSELY.