Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 PM CST SUN MAR 26 1995

OK MESONET DATA INDICATES DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO EXTREME ERN OK ATTM.
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE MAINLY IN LE FLORE AND
MCCURTAIN COUNTIES AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN EXTREME ERN
OK AND NW AR UNTIL THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS ALSO PERSISTED FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS WEST OF THE DRYLINE SO WILL NEED TO KEEP A MENTION
OF PRECIP THIS EVENING IN MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-44.

PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE NEAR A BVO TO BRISTOW TO PAULS VALLEY
LINE ATTM WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
NOTED BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF THE FCST
AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT.

MONDAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT COOLER WITH MAXES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN STATES DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD ERN OK AND NW AR MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS THICKENING UP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP
TUESDAY AS SFC RIDGE SHOULD HOLD OVER THE AREA PER ETA AND ECMWF
MODELS.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. IT
APPEARS FROM THE MODELS THAT THE COLD AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL SURGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND A STRONGER SURGE MOVING INTO NE OK LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF AND
UKMET MODELS WHICH BRING THE WRN STORM INTO THE PLAINS AS OPPOSED TO
THE MRF WHICH DOES NOT. THE UKMET SEEMS MUCH TOO FAST THOUGH SO WILL
FOLLOW THE ECMWF (WHICH HAS BEEN BEST ALL WINTER) ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.

ALSO LIKE THE COLDER ECMWF MODEL (WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE ETA MODEL AT
12Z TUESDAY) ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT TOO COLD AT 850 MB WITH THE ZERO
LINE BURIED DEEP DOWN IN TX. THIS IS THE 4TH DAY IN A ROW THAT THE
ECMWF HAS INDICATED SNOW FOR PARTS OF ERN OK SO WILL MENTION A
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW IN NE OK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

GENERALLY WENT COOLER THAN THE NGM MOS TEMPS IN THE SHORT RANGE EXCEPT
FOR MAXES MONDAY WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO APPROACH
THE NGM MOS NUMBERS.

TUL 41/64/38/55  -001   FSM 47/70/39/61  5001   MLC 44/68/39/59  3001
BVO 38/64/35/53  -001   FYV 43/64/34/59  5001   IDB 47/72/40/62  60-1
BYV 41/64/32/60  5001

.TUL...NONE.

PLATE

OKZ054>068-070-071-073>075-261900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1203 PM CST SUN MAR 26 1995

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 138 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE TORNADO WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.

OKZ054>068-070-071-073>075-261900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1203 PM CST SUN MAR 26 1995

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 138 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE TORNADO WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.

OKZ054>077-ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-271200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST SUN MAR 26 1995

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE THREAT AREA IS EAST OF A LINE FROM WELCH IN CRAIG
COUNTY TO MUSKOGEE TO MCALESTER.

AT 100 PM...A DRYLINE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS. THE DRYLINE LAY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EVENING AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE AIR TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS AND THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON IN AREAS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE AND SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

ARZ019-262330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
426 PM CST SUN MAR 26 1995

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MULBERRY IN CRAWFORD COUNTY ARKANSAS...

AT 425 PM...RADAR IN TULSA INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MULBERRY
IN CRAWFORD COUNTY. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL 900 PM.

ARZ019-262330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
426 PM CST SUN MAR 26 1995

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MULBERRY IN CRAWFORD COUNTY ARKANSAS...

AT 425 PM...RADAR IN TULSA INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MULBERRY
IN CRAWFORD COUNTY. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

A TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL 900 PM.