Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
325 PM CDT THU JUN 1 1995

UPR LO CONTS TO SLOWLY MV EWD. PLENTY OF CU HV DVLPD ARND THIS
FEATURE AND XTND ACRS MUCH OF FA. WDLY SCT TRW HV DVLPD MAINLY
ACRS NW AR AND ADJ PARTS OF ERN OK. BUT THERE ARE ALSO A FEW
CELLS IN CNTRL OK. WL GO W/20-30 POPS FOR RW/TRW THRU ERLY TNGT
AND MAKE LAST MIN ADJS BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS. BELIEVE MOST
ACTVTY SHLD BE THIS EVE...ALTHO MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER ESPC IN
AREAS NR MO BRDR. BY FRI UPR SYS SHLD BE FAR ENOUGH E TO NO
LONGER AFFECT FA. WITH S/W RIDGE MVG ACRS FA THINK THAT THERE
SHLD BE PLENTY OF SUN.

ETA/AVN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/MOVEMENT OF NEXT UPR SYS. NGM IS
FASTER AS IT BRINGS SYSTEM OUT IN PIECES RATHER THAN ALL AT ONCE.
WOULD LIKE TO BELIEVE ETA/AVN SOLN AS NMC DISCS SUGGEST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP W OF FA THRU SAT (ALTHO ETA DOES SPREAD
SOME LGT PRECIP INTO ERN OK BY 12Z SAT). HOWEVER AM SOMEWHAT
HESITANT TO WRITE OFF NGM SOLN SINCE THE SYS THAT HAS BEEN
AFFECTING FA FOR THE PAST SVRL DAYS ALSO CAME OUT IN SVRL PIECES.
ALSO WOULD XPCT SYS TO BE GETTING WEAKER AS IT IS JUN ALREADY
WHICH WOULD FAVOR NGM. EVEN IF NGM WOULD BE MDL OF CHOICE MOST
ACTVTY SHLD REMAIN W OF FA ALTHO SOME POPS PROB WOULD BE
WARRANTED IN ERN OK. FOR NOW WL LV CHC OF PRECIP OUT OF FCST THRU
SAT NGT AND SEE WHAT LATER MDL RUNS HV TO OFFER.

FWC AND FAN NMBRS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE. FOR MOST PART KEPT TEMPS
BTWN THOSE VALUES.

MRF MVS UPR TROF N OF FA AGAIN IN XTND PDS SO WL CARRY A CHC OF
RW/TRW SUN THRU TUE. BY 12Z TUE LOOKS AS IF S/W SHLD BE PASSING
FA SO POPS MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER BY TUE. BUT A LOT COULD HAPPEN
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. DO NOT SEE MUCH VARIATION IN TEMPS
W/READINGS XPCTD TO BE NR NRML.

PRELIM NMBRS
TUL 62/82 63/83 2011     FSM 62/84 64/86 3001
MLC 63/86 65/85 2011     BVO 60/82 62/83 2011
FYV 59/81 60/83 3001     IDB 62/86 64/86 2101
BYV 57/80 58/82 3001

07

.TUL..p.NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-021200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT THU JUN 1 1995

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO WEAK WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 10000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR
THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS AND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
537 PM CDT THU JUN 01 1995

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....      ST   EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0345 PM         ST. PAUL                AR   0.88 INCH HAIL
06/01/95        MADISON

 THUNDERSTORM
DAMAGE...... GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL
INJURIES.... NONE REPORTED
DEATHS...... NONE REPORTED

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
537 PM CDT THU JUN 01 1995

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....      ST   EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0345 PM         ST. PAUL       2         AR   0.88 INCH HAIL
06/01/95        MADISON