Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
955 AM CDT WED MAY 31 1995

12Z H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS ONE VORT LOBE SWINGING ACRS NE OK/NW AR W/AREA
OF RW/TRW MVG NE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NEXT VORT LOBE APRS TO BE NR
NM/TX BRDR. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FIRST S/W APRS TO BE SHORT LIVED
AS SCT TRW ARE ALREADY FORMING IN WRN OK/WRN TX. 12Z OUN SNDG SHOWS
A PRETTY GOOD LAPSE RATE BTWN H8 AND H65 BUT ALSO DRYING BLO H65. SO
THERE SHLD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FOR FA ONCE THIS FIRST AREA MVS
OUT. QUESTION IS HOW LONG OF A BREAK. WL MAKE ADJS TO POPS BASED ON
CRNT RADAR TRENDS ACRS FA AND WL KEEP CHC POPS GOING THIS AFTN IN
AREAS WHERE PRECIP HAS ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING.

LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BREAK IN CLDS ACRS CNTRL OK ON VSBL IMAGERY
BUT PWA TIK AND WDG ARE STILL OBSVG BKN HI CLDS. SO WL KEEP SKY COND
MSTLY CLDY FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE ATTM.

07

.TUL...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-311800-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT WED MAY 31 1995

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40...WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHCENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE RED RIVER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE...A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY STABLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE.  ANY HEATING THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD
TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.  THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

WEAK WINDS ALOFT...MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND THE LACK OF A CAP TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD NONSEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE FACTORS
AGAINST THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO PRODUCE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS WHICH...COMBINED WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...
MAY LEAD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE.  IN
ADDITION...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL MAKE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS A POSSIBILITY.  ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG UPDRAFTS...MAKING HAIL LARGER THAN PEA SIZE UNLIKELY.
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM STORMS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGEvNCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE RISK
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS...
AND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TODAY OR TONIGHT.