Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
325 PM CDT WED MAY 24 1995

COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF CNU TO END TO SOUTH OF CDS TO LBB
AT 20Z WELL TO THE SOUTH OF ALL MODEL FCSTS. OK MESONET DATA INDICATES
THAT FRONT IS CONTINUING TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH. SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT HAS
SLOWED WITH DAYTIME HEATING BUT WITH NIGHTFALL AND INCREASING
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SAG
AT LEAST INTO THE NW PART OF OUR FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

BIG STORMS FORMING ON THE FRONT IN SW OK ATTM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE CAP WEAKENS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL
KICK IN OVERNIGHT AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NRN OK INTO SE KS. CONSIDERED AN FFA FOR
THE NW PART OF OUR FCST AREA BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE I AM
UNSURE ON JUST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LATER TONIGHT. NOT MUCH FOCUS
FOR TSTMS IN SE OK TONIGHT AND CAP WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG IN THAT
AREA SO POPS WILL TAPER OFF DRAMATICALLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AND WILL NOT MENTION POPS AT ALL IN EXTREME SE OK TONIGHT.

LIKE THE AVN MODEL THE BEST SINCE IT IS FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WAVE INDUCED BY THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO MO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THE FRONT WILL GET A MORE SOLID PUSH TO THE SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY BUT AGAIN ONLY LOW POPS ARE IN ORDER FOR EXTREME SE OK.

PRECIP SHOULD END IN NE OK BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE IN
SE OK AND NW AR INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE IT TO NEAR THE
RED RIVER THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IT STALLS. PREFER THE ECMWF MODEL IN
HOLDING THE FRONT ACROSS ERN OK THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD INSTEAD OF
LIFTING IT NORTH AS THE MRF WOULD LIKE TO INDICATE. COULD BE SOME
SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS MAINLY IN NE OK DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

ADJUSTED GUIDANCE TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY IN SOME AREAS BASED ON EXPECTED
FRONTAL POSITIONS AND CURRENTLY OBSERVED READINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS IS POSSIBLE IN NE OK THURSDAY AS THE AVN
MODEL SUGGESTS THE SUN MAY COME OUT. RAISED POPS WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.

TUL 62/67/51/67  8861    FSM 66/81/63/71  2464    MLC 68/79/58/69  3673
BVO 56/59/49/66  +851    FYV 65/76/58/68  5773    IDB 66/83/65/73  1354
BYV 63/75/57/67  5773

.TUL...NONE.

PLATE

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-241200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
110 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT OVER THAT PART OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARTLESVILLE...TULSA
MIAMI AND BRISTOW.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REST OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A FRONT HAD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE HAD BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.
HOWEVER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WERE CAPPING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE
WAS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE
ABOVE THE CAP. UNLESS A THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP BELOW THE CAP
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD. AS THE NEXT UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IN THIS AREA
SOME THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TORNADOES TO DEVELOP. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE FRONT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
GET DRAWN NORTHWARD TO THE FRONTAL ZONE. AT THIS TIME IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MOVE...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALONG OR NORTH OF I-44.

SOUTH OF THE FRONT THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
COOL LATER TONIGHT THUS WEAKENING THE CAP. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATE TONIGHT. A FEW OF
THESE MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.