Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 AM CDT MON MAY 15 1995

SMALL CLUSTER OF RW/TRW HV BEEN MVG ENE ACRS SRN OK ERLY THIS
MRNG. SUPRISED THEY ARE THAT FAR N CONSIDERING ADAP ANALYSIS AND
MDLS FCST OF MOIST FLUX DIV. STRMS HV BEEN DVLPG E OF THE PRECIP
AREA W/WRN CELLS THEN WEAKENING. OTRW FNT APRS TO BE IN XTRM SE
OK THIS MRNG W/WK HI PRES ACRS KS/NE.

HI PRES TO MV OFF TO THE E TDY ALLOWING WNDS TO BCM SLY AGAIN.
APRS THAT CAP SHLD WEAKEN SOME TDY. BEST CONV AND INSTABILITY ARE
FCST ACRS SRN SCTNS SO HV PUT SLGTLY HIER POPS THERE THAN IN THE
N. INIT NMBRS ARE BASED ON THIS THINKING. WL MAKE LAST MINUTE
ADJS TO ZNS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. PRETTY GOOD CI SHIELD
HAS SPREAD ACRS FA THIS MRNG BUT XPCT THIS TO THIN AND CONT MVG
OFF TO THE E. SO WL WORD ZNS BCMG PTLY CLDY. FWC TEMPS LOOKS
FAIRLY GOOD.

THERE MAY BE SOME TRW LINGERING INTO THE EVE HRS BUT OTRW APRS
THAT TNGT COULD BE PRECIP FREE. LOOKS LIKE GOOD LO LVL FORCING
SHLD BE FOCUSED TO THE N AND E OF FA OVRNGT WHERE MDLS ARE
INDICATING AN MCS MIGHT DVLP. BELIEVE THAT ACTVTY SHLD NOT AFFECT
FAR NRN ZNS. SO WL NOT MENTION PRECIP IN TNGT PD FOR NOW. LO
TEMPS SHLD BE MILD W/PLENTY OF MOISTURE MVG BACK OVR FA TDY AND
ONCE AGAIN HV NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FM MOS.

APRS THAT CAP WL TRY TO STRENGTHEN SOME AGAIN ON TUE. BUT A WK
S/W IS FCST TO MV ACRS THE AREA. SO WL CONT W/SLGT CHC POPS IN
MOST AREAS. WL GO A LITTLE HIER IN XTRM NW ZNS WHERE POTENTIAL
TRW DVLPMNT MAY BE AIDED BY SOME LO LVL CONV FM A NEARBY SFC
TROF. ALSO DECIDED TO KEEP ZN77 DRY. BOTH ETA AND NGM SUGGEST
INCRSG HI CLDS ACRS FA. NEVER SURE HOW BEST TO HANDLE THAT.
THOUGHT THAT CLDS MIGHT BE A LITTLE THICKER IN WRN SCTNS SO WENT
MSTLY CLDY THERE AND KEPT IT PTLY CLDY ELSEWHERE. CONTD TO LEAN
TWD THE WARMER FWC NMBRS FOR TUE. IF CLDS ARE THICKER THAN XPCTD
THESE TEMPS WL BE TOO WM.

HV BEEN KEEPING AN EYE ON THE RADAR SO HV NOT HAD MUCH OF A CHC
TO LOOK AT THE XTNDED. BUT IT APRS THAT WED NGT INTO THU COULD BE
ACTIVE W/WEST COAST SYSTEM MVG INTO THE PLAINS.

PRELIM NMBRS
TUL 82/68/86 212    FSM 85/65/88 312
MLC 85/67/89 312    BVO 82/67/87 213
FYV 83/64/87 212    IDB 89/64/90 311
BYV 80/62/85 212

07

.TUL...NONE.