Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CST SUN FEB 26 1995

SOME PROBS TO CONTEND WITH FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. 1ST...THREAT OF TSTMS/SVR WX
TONIGHT. SUN TRYING COME OUT ACROSS W PART OF FA BUT MOISTURE AND INSTAB
ALREADY PRODUCING CU. GUD CU FIELD NOTED NR MCON AXIS ACROSS W OK THIS AFT.
LIS OF -4 TO -6 ALREADY BUILDING INTO N CENT OK. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO CONT
ACROSS W AND C OK/N TX THIS AFTN AND SPREAD EWD THIS EVENING AS VORT MAX LIFTS
INTO SE KS TONIGHT. WL MENTION SVR THREAT MOST ZNS ...MAINLY FOR HAILERS. WITH
UPR JET MAX PROGGED THRU N TX...THREAT OF STRONG WINDS/TORNADOES SHUD BE
CONFINED W AND S OF FA.

PRE FNTL WIND SHIFT WL MOVE ACROSS FA ON MONDAY. MDLS KEEP LOW LVL FLOW MORE
ERLY BEHIND WIND SHIFT. MOISTURE WL LIKELY BE SLOW TO CLR...BUT WL CALL FOR
CLRNG ACROSS NW ZNS FOR MON AFTN. SURGE OF COLDER AIR WL POSE SOME TEMP FCST
PROBLEMS FOR TUE. RIGHT NOW...FEEL THAT MDLS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS COLD AIR
MASS TOO WELL...WL THERE4 GO BLO GUID ACROSS N ZNS.

...10...

TUL 055/069 046/055 033 7211
MLC 055/071 050/064 036 7311
BVO 053/070 043/054 XXX 6211
IDB 053/068 054/070 XXX 8311

.TUL...NONE.

BEGINNING AT 1000 AM MARCH 21 1995...THIS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

OKZ054>077-271200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
235 PM CST SUN FEB 26 1995

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
   OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY
DEVELOP AT ANY TIME DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THIS LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA FOR DEW POINTS TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S.  BY MIDNIGHT...
DEW POINTS SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 60.

THESE HIGH DEW POINTS WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER ATMOSPHERIC
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING
TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.  WINDS ARE PROGGED TO TURN CLOCKWISE
WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND
FIELD WILL DECREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE...SO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES IS NOT LIKELY.  STRONG WINDS WITH THE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE STRONGEST WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE DRIEST AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE TO THE WEST OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AT THE EXPECTED TIME OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

CIVIL DEFENSE AGENCIES AND SPOTTER NETWORKS SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.