Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
355 PM CDT MON JUN 5 1995

MRNG MCS HAS STABILIZED AMS ACRS NE OK...WHILE CNVCTN IS FIRING
ACRS SRN OK/NRN TX ALNG OUTFLO BDRY AHD OF NRN TX VORT MAX...AND
ALSO FIRING ALNG DRYLN TX PNDL AHD OF DISTINCT VORT MAX SEEN
ROTATING SEWD OVR OK PNDL ON 4KM GOES8 WTR VPR AND PROFLR NETWRK.
SFC ANALYS SHOWS WK E TO W BNDRY...PSBL WRMFNT...IN PRES FIELD
AND WIND FIELD OVR NRN TX XTNDG FROM LOW PRES OVR SERN NM.

XPCT 1ST ROUND OF TRW...SOME SVR...TO AFFECT AREAS E OF OUTFLOW
BDRY THIS AFTN/EVNG.  MNWHL...SVR CNVCTN SHUD DVLP ACRS SRN TX
PNDL WHR DRYLN INTERSECTS NRN TX WRMFNT/TROF.  AS LLJ GETS GOING
TNGT...THINK ANOTHR CNVCTV COMPLEX WL DVLP.  THERMAL WIND FIELD
SUGGEST A MVMT TO E OR EVEN ESE...NOT NE AS INDCTD FOR LAST NGTS
MCS.  THIS MVMT WUD TAKE IT OVR NRN TX OR SRN OK LATE TNGT AS S/W
TROF SWINGS EWD OVR AREA.  MAY NOT BE MUCH TNGT TUL NWD...ATTM WL
INCLD 30 POPS THESE ZNS...WITH 40 TO 50 POPS S AND E OF TUL.

WHATS LEFT OF MCS TMRW MRNG CUD AFFECT FAR ERN/SERN ZNS...WILL
WORD THOSE ZNS PC WITH 20 POPS RW/TRW IN MRNG...BECOMING MSTLY
SUNNY IN AFTN.  ELSEWHR...BCMG MSTLY SUNNY.  AMS WL BE VRY UNSTBL
IN AFTN WITH SFC TEMPS WELL INTO 80S TO LWR 90S AND DWPTS IN 65
TO 70 RNG.  HWVR...MDLS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT...WITH
700 MB TEMPS ABV 10 DGRS C.  CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD LATE DAY TRW
ON ANY WK BDRYS IN AREA...AND DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS ACRS NW AR/
SE OK...ESP WITH MDLS INDICATG SOME LLVL ISENTRPC LIFT ACRS ERN
OK/NW AR THRU MIDDAY.  ATTM...WL MENT ISOLD LATE DAY TRW IN SE
OK/NW AR ZNS...NO MENT ELSWHR DUE TO STG CAP XPCTD.

FAIR WX XPCTD TMRW NGT.  LOOKED FOR MCC POTNTL IN MDL GRIDDED
DATA.  THERE IS SOME POTNTL OVR WRN KS AHD OF WK 700 MB S/W TROF
BUT THKNS FIELDS WUD STEER SUCH AN MCC N OF FCST AREA...SO NO TRW
MENT IN ZNS.  MSTLY SUNNY...HOT AND HUMID CONDS XPCTD WED...WITH
STG CAP SUPPRSG TRW DVLPMNT.  ISOLD TRW PSBL DUE TO TERRAIN SE
OK/NW AR...BUT WL NOT MENT IN 4TH PD ATTM.  LOOKS LIKE A REAL
TASTE OF SUMMER FOR FCST AREA NXT FEW DAYS.

AS FOR TMPS...WITH VRY WARM 850 MB TEMPS XPCTD...WL GO A LTL ABV
MOS FOR HI TMPS NXT 2 DAYS...BUT NOT AS HOT AS IT WOULD BE WITH
MORE SWRLY/WRLY SFC FLOW AND ISENTRPC DOWNGLIDE.  MOS OVRNGT LOWS
NOT TOO BAD.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

TUL 67/89 69/92 31--      MLC 68/92 70/95 51-1
FYV 66/88 68/90 42-1      FSM 66/91 70/94 52-1
BVO 65/89 67/92 31--      IDB 68/92l 71/95 52-1

PW
.TUL...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-061200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT MON JUN 5 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING
THAT INCLUDES PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING MCCURTAIN
COUNTY.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING CONTINUED TO DIMINISH OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.  WITH THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  THE POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40...WHERE THESE INGREDIENTS WILL MORE LIKELY COME TOGETHER.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WELL OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA ALONG A DEVELOPING DRYLINE.  THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX THAT WOULD
THEN MOVE EASTWARD...AFFECETING EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE lTONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION.

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT MON JUN 05 1995

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....      ST   EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1058 PM         OKEMAH                  OK   WIND DAMAGE
06/04/95        OKFUSKEE                     SEVERAL LARGE TREE
                                             LIMBS DOWN.

1220 AM         COLLINSVILLE            OK   WIND DAMAGE
06/05/95        TULSA                        TREE BLOWN OVER.

1244 AM         INOLA                   OK   WIND DAMAGE
06/05/95        ROGERS                       TREE UPROOTED.

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
448 PM CDT MON JUN 5 1995

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....      ST   EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

315 PM          ALDERSON                OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/05/95        PITTSBURG                    WIND GUST TO 60 MPH

345 PM          MCALESTER               OK   WIND GUST TO 70 MPH
06/05/95        PITTSBURG

410 PM          WILBURTON               OK   WIND GUSTS 60-65 MPH
06/05/95        LATIMER

355 PM          4 W KINTA               OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/05/95        HASKELL

410 PM          3 SW SUMMERFIELD        OK   .75 INCH HAIL
06/05/95        LE FLORE       T              WIND GUST TO 60 MPH

430 PM          MCCURTAIN               OK   .75 INCH HAIL
06/05/95        HASKELL