Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
253 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 1995

CONVECTION JUST BEGINNING TO POP ACROSS NRN ZONES AND THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAPID DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVG
WITH EVENTUAL SEA BREEZE COLLISION JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
OUTFLOW FROM LAST NITES ACTIVITY ACROSS SE GA/NERN FL MAY BE CAPPING
CENTRAL FL NOW. KTBW & KTLH 88DS WERE SHOWING ANAMALOUS PROPAGATION
ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON...OBVIOUSLY ATMOSPHERE IS
MORE STABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. VORT MAX OFF NE FL COAST THAT IS
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD ASSIST IN KICKING OFF
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING. THIS SAID...WILL GO 40% IN @1
AND @3 WITH 30% IN FMY FOR POPS THIS EVENING.

MODELS SHOW BIG CHANGES HEADING THIS WAY NEXT 48HRS. WE MAY ACTUALLY
BE TALKING ABOUT FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY! AT THIS TIME WILL GO
WITH A SCENARIO OF FRONT APPROACHING NRN PORTIONS OF FA LATE MONDAY.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SCATTERED AFT/EVG TSTMS DRIVEN
MAINLY BY SEA BREEZE FORCING. WITH FRONT APPROACHING CEDAR KEY LATE
LATE MONDAY AND SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION SUN NITE/MONDAY
WILL DROP MENTION OF POP TIMING FOR ALL BUT SW FL ON MONDAY. WILL BE
CLOSE TO FWC TEMPS SUNDAY AS IT SHOULD BE ONE LAST HOT DAY...BUT GO
COOLER ON MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. THANKS
FOR COORDINATION MLB.

@1 LEVY CITRUS HERNANDO PASCO PINELLAS HILLSBOROUGH MANATEE
@2 SARASOTA CHARLOTTE LEE
@3 SUMTER POLK HIGHLANDS HARDEE DESOTO

TPA BT 75/95/77/90 994425

NASH