Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Tallahassee, FL

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-072100-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EST TUE NOV 7 1995

POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSTMS ACRS THE FA DURG LATE AFT/EARLY EVE AS CDFNT
APCHS FROM MS VLY.  STG WNDS ALOFT THIS MRNG WITH 40 TO 50 KTS BETW 5
AND 10 THSND FEET ON KEVX VAD WIND PROFILE.  MODIFIED HODOGRAPH FROM
KEVX WINDS ALREADY SHOWS SR HELICITY IN NEIGHBORHOOD OF 250 FOR RIGHT
MOVING STMS.  XPCT SPEED SHEAR TO INCRS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS
MID-LVL WINDS STRENGTHEN.  LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AS TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY WARM ALOFT.  HOWEVER...WITH DEWPTS
ALREADY CREEPING UP INTO THE LWR 70S AND TEMPS WARMING...FEEL THAT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO WARRANT ENHANCED WORDING FOR SVR
THREAT IN THE ZONES.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DMGG WINDS THIS AFTN OVR
FL PNHNDL/SE AL...AND THIS EVE OVR SW GA/NW FL...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES.

AS FOR THE CUURENT PACKAGE...WOULD RECOMMEND BUMPING UP MAX TEMPS IN
THE FL ZONES AS PAM HAS ALREADY REACHED MID 70S AS OF 9 AM.  WOULD ADD
ENHANCED WORDING TO NW FL ZONES FOR SVR THREAT AND RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY CAT THIS EVENING...PER COORD CALL WITH MIA.  TEMPS MAY BE TOO
WARM ON THE MINS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF FROPA.

MOORE