Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERIVCE BLACKSBURG VA
947 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 1995

RECOMMENDATIONS...1ST PD ONLY.

WBC...FCST LUKS GUD.

RDU...FCST LUKS GUD.

CRW...WUD LIKE TO SEE SCT TRW FOR SE WV PER CAPE AND LI AT HTS AND
GSO.  ALSO WEAK LO LVL FORCING AND DIFFERENTIAL HTING WITH MTNS THIS
PM/EVENING.

DISCUSSION...

**********88D DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE THROUGH AT LEAST 3 PM***********

12Z SFC ANAL STILL INDCTNG AREA OF WEAK SFC CONVGNC FROM SW WV SE
INTO NRN NC.   THIS MATCHES WELL WITH GRIDDED DATA LO LVL DIV OF QVEC
(LQ08) FOR 12Z...AND THIS FEATURE IS PRGD TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU THE PM.  12Z SOUNDINGS FROM HTS/GSO MORE UNSTABLE THAN YDY.
K-INDEX ALSO HIER SO RH NOT TO BE A PROB.  MODFYING SOUNDINGS TO
YDY'S MAX'S FOR HTS AND GSO GIVES LI'S OF -6 AND -8 AND B+ OF 1946
AND 2521 RESPECTIVELY.  IAD NOT AVLBL...BUT WAL SEEMS TO PRECLUDE
TRW FARTHER NORTH.

SPN

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WVZ042>045-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-NCZ001>006-
018>020-171200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1155 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 1995

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EARLY THIS EVENING...

THE AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORSMS IS ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...MAINLY FROM THE
NEW RIVER VALLEY SOUTH AND WEST.

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
THE TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LARGE HAIL...BUT DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POnSSIBLE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THESE AREAS IS LESS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

NOGUEIRA

WVZ042>045-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-NCZ001>006-
018>020-171200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1155 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 1995

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EARLY THIS EVENING...

THE AREA UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORSMS IS ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...MAINLY FROM THE
NEW RIVER VALLEY SOUTH AND WEST.

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
THE TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LARGE HAIL...BUT DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA
AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THESE AREAS IS LESS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

NOGUEIRA