Flash Flood Warning 114, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
230 AM EDT THU OCT 5 1995

RECOMMENDATIONS...

WBC...BUMP POPS UPWD TDY.

ALL...CRNT WATCHES/WRNGS LOOK ON TRACK.

DISCUSSION...

05Z ANALYSIS PUTS CNTRL OF OPAL JUST N OF MGM...AND THOU IT APPRS AS
THO IT HAS FILLED A FEW MB DURG LAST CPL OF HRS...STILL PACKING A
GOOD GRADIENT.  FNT STL ACRS CNTRL WVA/KY.  FM KGSP/KFCX VAD WNDS IT
LOOKS LIKE REALLY GUSTY WNDS PROBABLY AT HIER ELEVATIONS ATTM...AS
OBS DO NOT YET SHOW TOO MUCH.  XPCT WNDS TO PICK UP CONSIDERABLY
DURG ERLY PART OF TDY.

AS FOR PCPN...GOOD COVERAGE ON KFCX ATTM...W/ HEAVIEST PCPN W/ OF
MNTNS IN WVA/SW VA...AND OVR WRN NC.  KGSP RADAR SHOWING BANDS HVY
PCPN OVR WRN NC.  IF PROGGS HOLD TO FORM...AND ETA/NGM SEEM IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...HEAVIEST PCPN IN RNK CWA WL RMN OVR WRN PTNS OF FA. THIS
WD INCLUDE NW NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...FAR SW VA AND PROBABLY
PORTIONS OF THE NRV/SE WVA.  STILL...THINK MEASUREABLE A GOOD BET
OVER ENTIRE AREA...AND ROA/LYH FCST OF 60 PCNT TO LOW.

SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WL GET SWEPT N/NE QUICKLY AS UPR FLOW GRABS
ONTO OPAL AND TAKES OFF.  DRIER AIR WL WORK BHND THIS SYSTEM...BUT
NOT TIL TNT.  TMRW IS SETTING UP TO BE A MUCH NICER DAY W/ PTLY SNY
SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WRMR TEMPS.

SELS HAS SVR CHC OVR ONLY EXTRM ERN PART OF CWA...BUT GOOD VALUES OF
HELICITY ARE FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN THIS.  BERYL SPAWNED THE
MARTINSVILLE TORNADO LAST YEAR...AND SINCE THIS WAS ONLY A CPL DAYS
AFT WE ALL GOT HERE...WE REMEMBER IT WELL.  I KNOW THAT WE WL BE
WATCHING CLOSLY AS SYSTEM PROGRESSES.

TEMPS WL BE TRICKY TDY.  THOSE AREA WHICH SEE LIGHT PCPN ALL DAY WL
SHD REMAIN ALMOST STDY.  OTHER LCNS WL WARM TO CRNT FCSTS.

ROA 70/63/80/57 94-0

DESROSIERS

NCZ001>006-018>020-051330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
540 AM EDT THU OCT 5 1995

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...
...HIGH WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...

LOW LEVEL WINDS SPIRALING AROUND TROPICAL STORM OPAL ARE BRINGING
THE THREAT OF VERY HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

AT 500 AM...THE CENTER OF OPAL WAS LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES EAST OF
HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA.  THE STORM WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
25 MILES AN HOUR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION.  THIS TURNING OF STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CREATE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.  A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SURRY...STOKES... ROCKINGHAM...WILKES AND
YADKIN COUNTY UNTIL NOON EDT.

WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING.  THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.  A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA FOR TODAY.  THE COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THIS
WARNING ARE ASHE...ALLEGHANY...SURRY...WATAUGA AND WILKES.  WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 MILES AN HOUR THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF STOKES...
ROCKINGHAM...CASWELL AND YADKIN COUNTY FOR TODAY.  WINDS SPEEDS IN
THESE COUNTIES...A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MAIN PART OF THE
STORM...WILL CLIMB TO 15 TO 30 MPH...AND GUST TO OVER 40 MPH AT
TIMES.

THE KEY TO SURVIVAL IS ADVANCED PLANNING.  YOU SHOULD KNOW WHERE
THE SAFEST AREAS OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS ARE...SUCH AS INTERIOR
ROOMS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLET FOR THE LASTEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

DESROSIERS/WHITE

NCZ001>006-018>020-051330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
540 AM EDT THU OCT 5 1995

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...
...HIGH WINDS REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...

LOW LEVEL WINDS SPIRALING AROUND TROPICAL STORM OPAL ARE BRINGING
THE THREAT OF VERY HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

AT 500 AM...THE CENTER OF OPAL WAS LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES EAST OF
HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA.  THE STORM WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
25 MILES AN HOUR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION.  THIS TURNING OF STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CREATE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.  A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SURRY...STOKES... ROCKINGHAM...WILKES AND
YADKIN COUNTY UNTIL NOON EDT.

WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING.  THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.  A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA FOR TODAY.  THE COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THIS
WARNING ARE ASHE...ALLEGHANY...SURRY...WATAUGA AND WILKES.  WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 MILES AN HOUR THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF STOKES...
ROCKINGHAM...CASWELL AND YADKIN COUNTY FOR TODAY.  WINDS SPEEDS IN
THESE COUNTIES...A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MAIN PART OF THE
STORM...WILL CLIMB TO 15 TO 30 MPH...AND GUST TO OVER 40 MPH AT
TIMES.

THE KEY TO SURVIVAL IS ADVANCED PLANNING.  YOU SHOULD KNOW WHERE
THE SAFEST AREAS OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS ARE...SUCH AS INTERIOR
ROOMS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLET FOR THE LASTEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

DESROSIERS/WHITE

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-061200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
705 AM EDT THU OCT 5 1995

...FLASH FLOODING/FLOODING...TORNADOES AND HIGH WIND POSSIBLE
TODAY...

OPAL HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT IT/S EFFECTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FELT TODAY.  THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY
MID AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING...FLOODING...TORNADOES AND HIGH WINDS TO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
TODAY.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BRING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY NOON.  LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.   THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND FLOODING.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OPAL ARE EXPECTED.  ELSEWHERE
...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...THE REMNANTS OF OPAL WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS...POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION....STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND WATCHES AND POSSIVBLE WARNINGS.

DESROSIERS

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-
059-WVZ042>045-061200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
705 AM EDT THU OCT 5 1995

...FLASH FLOODING/FLOODING...TORNADOES AND HIGH WIND POSSIBLE
TODAY...

OPAL HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT IT/S EFFECTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FELT TODAY.  THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING TO EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY
MID AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING...FLOODING...TORNADOES AND HIGH WINDS TO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
TODAY.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BRING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY NOON.  LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.   THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND FLOODING.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OPAL ARE EXPECTED.  ELSEWHERE
...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...THE REMNANTS OF OPAL WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS...POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION....STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND WATCHES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DESROSIERS